MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/23/20 on FanDuel
Do you miss Major League Baseball? Yeah, we do, too.
Enter MLB Sim Sports, a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for tonight's slate, which locks at 8:06 pm ET. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber (R) | $10,000 | @SEA | 4.68 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 25.9 % | 88 |
| Dinelson Lamet (R) | $9,600 | CLE | 3.61 | 33.6% | 9.6% | 22.1 % | 96 |
| Zack Wheeler (R) | $9,000 | @ATL | 4.20 | 23.6% | 6.0% | 22.4 % | 100 |
| Jose Berrios (R) | $8,400 | @HOU | 4.28 | 23.2% | 6.1% | 16.3 % | 129 |
| Zac Gallen (R) | $8,000 | LOS | 4.24 | 28.7% | 10.8% | 20.2 % | 122 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. (R) | $7,700 | MIN | -- | -- | -- | 20.9 % | 119 |
| Max Fried (L) | $7,300 | PHI | 3.83 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 23.9 % | 109 |
| Steven Matz (L) | $7,100 | @SFG | 4.46 | 22.3% | 7.6% | 22.2 % | 92 |
| Drew Smyly (L) | $7,000 | NYM | 4.73 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 23.4 % | 114 |
| Dylan Cease (R) | $6,900 | DET | 4.60 | 24.9% | 10.7% | 25.6 % | 82 |
| Marco Gonzales (L) | $6,800 | TEX | 5.08 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 26.4 % | 97 |
| Jefry Rodriguez (R) | $6,600 | @SDP | 5.32 | 16.8% | 10.0% | 25.0 % | 88 |
| Brett Anderson (L) | $6,400 | TOR | 5.17 | 12.1% | 6.6% | 24.7 % | 94 |
| Julio Urias (L) | $6,300 | @ARI | 3.75 | 29.4% | 6.4% | 21.5 % | 112 |
| Trent Thornton (R) | $6,200 | @MIL | 4.94 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 22.8 % | 102 |
| Patrick Sandoval (L) | $6,000 | BOS | 4.89 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 19.7 % | 112 |
| Daniel Norris (L) | $5,900 | @CWS | 4.50 | 21.2% | 6.1% | 23.8 % | 119 |
| Ryan Weber (R) | $5,800 | @LAA | 5.16 | 13.2% | 3.8% | 20.3 % | 109 |
| Danny Duffy (L) | $5,700 | @COL | 4.89 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 24.1 % | 98 |
| Antonio Senzatela (R) | $5,500 | KAN | 5.50 | 13.1% | 9.8% | 22.1 % | 93 |
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on tonight's slate.
Pitchers
Corey Kluber ($10,000) is coming off a forgettable, injury-shortened 2019 season, and while projection systems see a drop-off from his peak, he's still expected to bounce back. Steamer projects him for a solid 4.21 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, and 6.4% walk rate. He should be able to take care of business against a weak Seattle lineup.
Dinelson Lamet ($9,600) has a neutral matchup against Cleveland, but the strikeout upside is obvious -- no one else on the slate cracks a 30% rate.
Dylan Cease ($6,900) isn't a guy we normally look to, but we can make an exception against the lowly Detroit Tigers. Cease gets enough punchouts to be viable at this price point.
Stacks
It's another Coors Field night, and Danny Duffy isn't exactly someone the simulated Colorado Rockies should fear. You know you want Nolan Arenado ($4,300) and Trevor Story ($4,400) against the southpaw, and Ian Desmond ($3,200) is a solid value.
The Kansas City Royals can take advantage of the venue, too, with an easy matchup against Antonio Senzatela. Jorge Soler ($4,000) and Salvador Perez ($3,600) are good bets to go deep, and Ryan O'Hearn ($3,100) can help save salary.
The Texas Rangers are up against left-hander Marco Gonzales and his below-average strikeout rate. Even in the lefty-lefty spot, Joey Gallo ($3,400) is always a threat to homer, and the rest of the lineup can be had on the cheap, including Willie Calhoun ($2,600) and Todd Frazier ($2,200). Calhoun is another lefty stick who showed plenty of pop in same-sided matchups last year (.275 ISO).
If you're looking to be contrarian, you could take a chance on the Houston Astros. Although Jose Berrios put up respectable numbers in 2019, Steamer sees him as more of a league-average starter, so the sim might view him along the same lines.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
