MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/22/20 on FanDuel
Do you miss Major League Baseball? Yeah, we do, too.
Enter MLB Sim Sports, a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for tonight's slate, which locks at 8:06 pm ET. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
|Pitcher||Salary||Opp.||SIERA||K%||BB%||Opp. K%||Opp. wRC+|
|Rick Porcello (R)||$9,300||@SFG||4.86||18.6%||5.9%||24.0 %||89|
|Zack Greinke (R)||$9,000||MIN||3.96||23.1%||3.7%||20.9 %||119|
|Gio Gonzalez (L)||$8,900||DET||5.03||20.7%||10.5%||24.9 %||98|
|Alex Wood (L)||$8,500||@ARI||4.67||19.6%||5.9%||21.5 %||112|
|Kendall Graveman (R)||$7,900||TEX||--||--||--||25.5 %||89|
|Jordan Lyles (R)||$7,700||@SEA||4.53||24.4%||9.2%||25.9 %||88|
|Griffin Canning (R)||$7,300||BOS||4.31||25.3%||7.8%||19.9 %||105|
|Kevin Gausman (R)||$7,000||NYM||4.41||23.6%||7.3%||21.5 %||109|
|Mike Leake (R)||$6,800||LOS||4.79||15.2%||3.2%||20.2 %||122|
|Tanner Roark (R)||$6,600||@MIL||4.57||21.9%||7.1%||22.8 %||102|
|Jordan Zimmermann (R)||$6,400||@CWS||4.93||16.3%||5.0%||25.6 %||107|
|Brian Johnson (L)||$6,100||@LAA||5.92||13.9%||10.2%||19.8 %||102|
|Jhoulys Chacin (R)||$6,000||@HOU||4.91||21.7%||9.7%||16.3 %||129|
|Adrian Houser (R)||$5,800||TOR||4.08||24.2%||7.5%||25.2 %||85|
|Kyle Freeland (L)||$5,600||KAN||5.19||16.7%||8.3%||21.7 %||88|
|Jorge Lopez (R)||$5,500||@COL||5.01||18.4%||8.0%||22.5 %||86|
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on tonight's slate.
You know it's a pretty rotten pitching slate when Rick Porcello is the most expensive pitcher on the board. Yikes.
There isn't really anyone enticing at the top of the salary list, so you might as well drop down to someone like Kevin Gausman ($7,000), who doesn't have an amazing matchup against the Mets but could still perform reasonably well in the confines of Oracle Park. Steamer projects Gausman for a respectable 4.04 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, and 7.0% walk rate, so the sim should view much more favorably than last year's 5.72 ERA.
Outside of Gausman, Griffin Canning ($7,300) may very well have the most punchout upside of tonight's bunch after posting a slate-best 25.3% strikeout rate as a rookie. The Red Sox aren't likely to do him in any favors, but beggars can't be choosers.
Given the dearth of quality arms, you could also consider punting the position with Adrian Houser ($5,800), who could be on the lower-end of simulated pitch counts but recorded solid numbers last year. Steamer projects a step back in strikeouts, so the ceiling probably won't be amazing, but you could do worse than take a shot here on a Coors Field hitting slate.
And speaking of Coors, Jorge Lopez is the poor sap peddling his wares in Colorado tonight, and he's unlikely to turn a profit after a forgettable 2019 campaign. And considering how little you have to pay at pitcher, it won't be as difficult to fit in the Colorado Rockies' priced up stars like Nolan Arenado ($4,200) and Trevor Story ($4,200). Charlie Blackmon ($4,300), David Dahl ($4,000), and Daniel Murphy ($3,600) get a boost from the platoon advantage.
Mike Leake's middling strikeout rate shouldn't be expected to keep the Los Angeles Dodgers off the board, either. They aren't as expensive as the Rockies, so you should have an even easier time rostering the lefty power bats of Cody Bellinger ($4,100), Max Muncy ($3,700), and Joc Pederson ($3,700). Will Smith ($3,000) is an excellent salary saver and mashed 35 dingers between Triple-A and the Majors last year.
The Chicago White Sox could have a field day against Jordan Zimmermann, who's coming off a dreadful 2019 season and has long been a guy to attack in DFS. Steamer has him giving up 1.88 homers per 9 innings in 2020. Honestly, anyone from one through seven in the lineup has a reasonable chance of going deep, and prospect Luis Robert ($2,700) could get in on the fun, too.
Lastly, left-hander, Brian Johnson has some unsightly marks in the above chart, so take full advantage of being able to lock in Mike Trout ($4,500) at a price that's often out of reach on other slates.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.