MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/21/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 8:06 p.m. EST.
Justin Verlander ($12,000), Stephen Strasburg ($11,200) and Luis Castillo ($8,700) stand out on the bump. Castillo -- who had a 28.9% strikeout rate and 15.9% swinging-strike rate a year ago -- shouldn't be this cheap and is awfully enticing for his date with the St. Louis Cardinals, especially on a Coors slate. The matchups are tough for all three as JV faces the Oakland Athletics and Stras takes on the Atlanta Braves. Of this tro, I side with Verlander for his elite floor and then Castillo, but it's close.
I'm not seeing much I like after that group, but if forced to pick someone, I'd go with Luke Weaver ($6,800). The Milwaukee Brewers are a tough matchup, but Weaver had a 3.84 SIERA and 26.5% strikeout rate across 64 1/3 frames in 2019. I'd stick to the aforementioned big three, though.
Jon Gray and Garrett Richards will be going at Coors tonight. We won't spend much time here, but if you use Castillo, it's a lot easier to get to the Rockies' studs. The Padres are stackable, too, of course.
Outside of Coors, the Los Angeles Dodgers are a money stack versus Ivan Nova, the owner of a 5.16 SIERA last season. While the Dodgers' expensive studs are worth it, Justin Turner ($3,300) and Max Muncy ($3,300) are hitting third and fifth, respectively, and are priced modestly. Corey Seager ($2,600), Will Smith ($2,800) and Gavin Lux ($2,220) are a cheap bottom-of-the-lineup stack as they're slotted 6-7-8.
I also like the Boston Red Sox as a possibly contrarian stack against Jon Lester, who gave up a 38.6% hard-hit rate last year. Boston isn't too pricey, either. Xander Bogaerts ($3,100) and J.D. Martinez ($3,500) are hitting second and fourth, respectively, and have the platoon advantage. Michael Chavis ($2,200) and Kevin Pillar ($2,200) are super cheap ways to get exposure to this lineup.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.