MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/20/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 8:06 p.m. EST.
At the top tier today, we have Walker Buehler ($12,000) and Jacob deGrom ($11,400). Buehler definitely has the easier matchup as he's at home versus the Detroit Tigers, while deGrom hosts the Philadelphia Phillies. There's every reason to expect a high floor and huge ceiling from Buehler. He should be the most popular arm on the slate. With that said, the thought of getting deGrom at lower-than-usual ownership is enticing, and he obviously has the stuff to plow through any lineup.
Carlos Carrasco ($9,600) and Caleb Smith ($8,900) check some boxes in the mid-range. Carrasco is up against a volatile Chicago White Sox offense that has pop but also whiffs at a high rate. Smith gets a tasty home date with a light-hitting New York Giants offense. It's risky to use anyone other than Buehler or deGrom, but if you're looking to avoid chalk, I like Carrasco best of these two.
We need cheaper stacks today to jam in Buehler or deGrom, and I like the New York Mets in their matchup with Zach Eflin, who put up just an 18.3% strikeout rate in 2019 while allowing a 37.9% hard-hit rate.
Michael Conforto ($2,500) is laughably cheap and thrives with the platoon advantage. Brandon Nimmo ($2,800) and Jeff McNeil ($2,700) are cheap ways to get exposure to guys hitting atop the lineup. Even Pete Alonso ($3,600) is at a modest price.
Matt Boyd is scary to stack against because he misses bats, but Boyd also surrendered a 40.7% hard-hit rate and 44.9% fly-ball rate a year ago. Justin Turner ($2,900), Will Smith ($2,800), A.J. Pollock ($3,000) and Chris Taylor ($2,000) are low-cost ways to get a piece of Los Angeles Dodgers righties today. And Mookie Betts ($3,600) is decently priced if you can afford him.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.