MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/19/20 on FanDuel
Do you miss Major League Baseball? Yeah, we do, too.
Enter MLB Sim Sports, a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for tonight's slate, which locks at 8:06 pm ET. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber (R) | $11,600 | CWS | 3.36 | 30.2% | 4.7% | 25.6 % | 107 |
| Clayton Kershaw (L) | $11,000 | DET | 3.77 | 26.7% | 5.8% | 24.9 % | 98 |
| Gerrit Cole (R) | $10,800 | @MIN | 2.62 | 39.9% | 5.9% | 20.9 % | 119 |
| Andrew Heaney (L) | $9,100 | TEX | 3.87 | 28.9% | 7.3% | 26.4 % | 97 |
| Sonny Gray (R) | $8,800 | @STL | 3.97 | 29.0% | 9.6% | 23.6 % | 94 |
| Lucas Giolito (R) | $8,500 | @CLE | 3.57 | 32.3% | 8.1% | 22.1 % | 96 |
| Mike Minor (L) | $8,200 | @LAA | 4.51 | 23.2% | 7.9% | 19.8 % | 102 |
| Madison Bumgarner (L) | $8,000 | MIL | 4.15 | 24.1% | 5.1% | 20.7 % | 102 |
| Jakob Junis (R) | $7,600 | @SEA | 4.63 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 25.9 % | 88 |
| Miles Mikolas (R) | $7,400 | CIN | 4.39 | 18.9% | 4.2% | 24.3 % | 95 |
| Jose Urena (R) | $7,300 | SFG | 4.98 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 24.0 % | 89 |
| Andrew Suarez (L) | $7,000 | @MIA | 6.47 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 24.9 % | 82 |
| Eric Lauer (L) | $6,800 | @ARI | 4.74 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 21.5 % | 112 |
| Yusei Kikuchi (L) | $6,500 | KAN | 5.17 | 16.1% | 6.9% | 21.7 % | 88 |
| Michael Fulmer (R) | $6,300 | @LOS | -- | -- | -- | 20.2 % | 122 |
| Sean Manaea (L) | $6,200 | HOU | 3.86 | 27.5% | 6.4% | 15.9 % | 137 |
| Jake Odorizzi (R) | $6,100 | NYY | 4.14 | 27.1% | 8.1% | 23.4 % | 119 |
| Jose Urquidy (R) | $6,000 | @OAK | 3.77 | 25.9% | 4.3% | 22.8 % | 109 |
| Jeff Hoffman (R) | $5,700 | SDP | 5.11 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 25.0 % | 88 |
| Zach Davies (R) | $5,500 | @COL | 5.43 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 22.5 % | 86 |
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on tonight's slate.
Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw ($11,000) looks to be the safest high-priced hurler against a modest Detroit lineups that likes to strike out.
On the other hand, Gerrit Cole ($10,800) draws a brutal matchup versus the Twins, but the upside is evident from that ridiculous 39.9% strikeout rate last year. Steamer projects him for a 34.4% rate in 2020, so the sim should be pretty bullish on his punchout chances, regardless of the matchup.
Sonny Gray ($8,800) and Lucas Giolito ($8,500) are coming off fantastic 2019 campaigns and face winnable contests against St. Louis and Cleveland, respectively. They're your best bets in the mid-range.
Stacks
The Colorado Rockies are the obvious stack at Coors Field against a low-strikeout arm in Zach Davies, but they're priced up as usual. All your typical Rockies bats are in play, with lefty sticks David Dahl ($3,800) and Ryan McMahon ($3,800) slightly easier to fit in at their sub-$4k salaries. As is often the case, Ian Desmond ($3,000) is your best way to save up for the big guns.
Left-hander Mike Minor's 2019 peripherals were around league average last year, and that's pretty much how he projects in 2020. He's a fly-ball pitcher who gives up his share of dingers, so we should like the Los Angeles Angels, with Mike Trout ($4,500), Anthony Rendon ($3,700), Justin Upton ($3,300), and even Brian Goodwin ($2,200) as strong candidates to homer.
Jake Odorizzi actually has pretty solid numbers in the above chart, but he's projected for regression by public models across the board. In particular, he's expected to give up more bombs this year, which is good news for the New York Yankees. Gary Sanchez ($3,200), Gleyber Torres ($3,300), and Aaron Hicks ($2,600) make stacking this lineup easy if you don't have the funds to pay up.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
