MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/17/20 on FanDuel
If you're looking for strikeouts on Wednesday's simulated MLB DFS slate, you will be sorely disappointed.
Of the 20 virtual pitchers, only one had a strikeout rate higher than 25.0% in starts last year. That was Dinelson Lamet ($9,800), and his sauciness came in a small sample as he returned from injury.
Outside of that, we're scrambling, trying to find that ever-necessary fantasy goodness.
To see for yourself, here's a list of the starters on the slate sorted by their FanDuel salaries. The individual numbers are from starts the pitchers made in 2019. The opposing numbers are based on current active rosters against that pitcher's handedness in 2019.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opponent | SIERA | Strikeout % | Walk % | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance McCullers Jr. | $10,200 | SEA | -- | -- | -- | 25.9% | 88 |
| Dinelson Lamet | $9,800 | CIN | 3.61 | 33.6% | 9.6% | 24.3% | 95 |
| Rick Porcello | $8,400 | CHC | 4.86 | 18.6% | 5.9% | 23.5% | 108 |
| Alex Wood | $8,200 | ARI | 4.67 | 19.6% | 5.9% | 21.5% | 112 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | $7,900 | SDP | 4.29 | 24.0% | 7.0% | 25.0% | 88 |
| Jose Quintana | $7,500 | NYM | 4.55 | 19.9% | 5.9% | 23.4% | 114 |
| Max Fried | $7,400 | BOS | 3.83 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 19.7% | 112 |
| Trevor Williams | $7,300 | NYY | 5.08 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 23.4% | 119 |
| Gio Gonzalez | $7,100 | DET | 5.03 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 24.9% | 98 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | $7,000 | TOR | 4.21 | 20.9% | 3.2% | 24.7% | 94 |
| J.A. Happ | $6,900 | PIT | 4.77 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 21.3% | 85 |
| Adam Wainwright | $6,800 | COL | 4.70 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 22.5% | 86 |
| Jefry Rodriguez | $6,500 | BAL | 5.32 | 16.8% | 10.0% | 21.5% | 86 |
| Mike Leake | $6,400 | LOS | 4.79 | 15.2% | 3.2% | 20.2% | 122 |
| Kyle Freeland | $6,300 | STL | 5.19 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 22.4% | 96 |
| Tanner Roark | $6,200 | TAM | 4.57 | 21.9% | 7.1% | 24.3% | 99 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | $6,100 | CLE | 4.88 | 21.8% | 7.8% | 22.1% | 96 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | $6,000 | CWS | 4.93 | 16.3% | 5.0% | 25.6% | 107 |
| Kendall Graveman | $5,800 | HOU | -- | -- | -- | 16.3% | 129 |
| Ryan Weber | $5,500 | ATL | 5.16 | 13.2% | 3.8% | 22.4% | 100 |
You can see why this slate is so tough. Thankfully, our one savior in Lamet is objectively in a really good spot.
Lamet's facing the Cincinnati Reds, who have made big additions to their offense in the offseason. Still, the hitters currently on their roster had a 24.3% strikeout rate last year, giving Lamet's upside a boost. Our other high-strikeout pitcher on the slate -- Lance McCullers ($10,200) -- has identical downsides to Lamet in that we don't know how long of a leash the simulations will give him. With that in mind, we can take the slight discount and ride with Lamet as the top arm of the night.
If you want to spend down a bit, you will be sacrificing upside. But you can consider using Lamet's opponent on the virtual bump in Anthony DeSclafani ($7,900).
DeSclafani had both solid results and peripherals last year with a 3.89 ERA and 4.29 SIERA, and he brought along a 24.0% strikeout rate. The opposing San Diego Padres have an even higher strikeout rate than the Reds at 25.0%. Although Lamet holds the edge, either side of this matchup is a good route for DFS.
With the lack of strikeouts, we've got plenty of stacking options at our disposal. The top one seems to be the re-tooled Chicago White Sox against Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann had a 6.91 ERA and 4.93 SIERA last year, and his 16.3% strikeout rate shows he can't exploit the White Sox's biggest weakness.
Because Zimmermann is a righty, this is a prime slate to find the salary for Yoan Moncada ($3,700). Moncada had a .246 isolated slugging percentage against righties last year and swiped 7 of his 10 bases in those spots. Nomar Mazara ($2,700) is a quality option despite hitting seventh if you need more of a value hitter.
For other stacks, the Atlanta Braves are definitely better suited for DeSclafani lineups because their main studs carry super lofty salaries. But they're facing Ryan Weber, who struggled both as a starter and a reliever last year, putting them in a prime spot to load up. Ender Inciarte ($2,200) could work if you're desperate for extra salary flexibility, but outside of that, it's mainly the big names in this lineup.
Thankfully, if you want a boost in getting to the Braves' studs, you can stack the St. Louis Cardinals in the other half of your lineup. They're all cost-effective and facing Kyle Freeland. Although Freeland is rid of Coors Field on this slate, his 5.19 SIERA is still something we can stack against.
Among the Cardinals starting for this slate, only Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100) carries a salary higher than $3,000. Their leadoff hitter -- Tommy Edman ($2,100) -- is almost minimum salary and crushed lefties in a small sample last year. If you load up on guys like Edman, you may even be able to stack the Braves in lineups with Lamet, so they're definitely a team we need to have on our radar.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
