MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/16/20 on FanDuel
Do you miss Major League Baseball? Yeah, we do, too.
Enter MLB Sim Sports, a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for tonight's slate, which locks at 8:06 pm ET. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
Note: Taijuan Walker only threw one innings in 2019, so his stats aren't listed.
|Pitcher||Salary||Opp.||SIERA||K%||BB%||Opp. K%||Opp. wRC+|
|Luis Castillo (R)||$10,200||@SDP||3.95||28.9%||10.1%||25.0 %||88|
|Zack Greinke (R)||$9,700||@SEA||3.96||23.1%||3.7%||25.9 %||88|
|David Price (L)||$9,100||ARI||3.85||28.0%||7.0%||21.5 %||112|
|Jon Gray (R)||$8,600||@STL||4.28||23.7%||8.4%||23.6 %||94|
|Dylan Bundy (R)||$8,200||@OAK||4.54||23.1%||8.3%||22.8 %||109|
|Marcus Stroman (R)||$7,800||@CHC||4.41||20.5%||7.5%||23.5 %||108|
|Jon Lester (L)||$7,600||NYM||4.49||21.6%||6.8%||23.4 %||114|
|Dakota Hudson (R)||$6,900||COL||5.06||18.0%||11.3%||22.5 %||86|
|Reynaldo Lopez (R)||$6,800||@DET||4.88||20.9%||8.0%||25.6 %||82|
|Garrett Richards (R)||$6,600||CIN||4.93||26.8%||14.6%||24.3 %||95|
|Luke Weaver (R)||$6,500||@LOS||3.84||26.5%||5.4%||20.2 %||122|
|Adam Plutko (R)||$6,400||BAL||5.19||17.5%||5.7%||21.5 %||86|
|Ivan Nova (R)||$6,200||CWS||5.16||14.1%||5.8%||25.6 %||107|
|Mike Fiers (R)||$6,100||LAA||5.19||16.7%||7.0%||20.3 %||109|
|Homer Bailey (R)||$6,000||MIL||4.60||21.4%||7.6%||22.8 %||102|
|Kyle Gibson (R)||$6,000||KAN||4.27||22.4%||7.8%||22.1 %||93|
|Mike Montgomery (L)||$5,900||@TEX||4.74||18.3%||7.5%||26.4 %||97|
|Wade LeBlanc (L)||$5,800||@CLE||5.01||16.9%||5.1%||20.8 %||104|
|Adrian Houser (R)||$5,700||@MIN||4.08||24.2%||7.5%||20.9 %||119|
|Taijuan Walker (R)||$5,500||HOU||--||--||--||16.3 %||129|
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on tonight's slate.
Ivan Nova produced a middling 14.1% strikeout rate last year and projects for an ERA over 5.00 across all models on FanGraphs. The Chicago White Sox are poised to take advantage with no one priced above $3,500. You can conceivably roster with confidence anyone batting first through sixth in the order, and don't forget top prospect Luis Robert ($2,800) out of the eight-hole. Projections love Robert's potential.
The Milwaukee Brewers are also firmly in play versus Homer Bailey, who was mediocre in 2019 and projects to only get worse in 2020. Christian Yelich ($4,300), Keston Hiura ($3,600), and Justin Smoak ($2,800) are top options to go deep.
For a more contrarian stack, you can roll with the New York Mets against Jon Lester. The Mets have strong marks against southpaws, and others may be reluctant to stack against a big name like Lester, who's projected to decline even further. If nothing else, lock in Pete Alonso ($3,700) or Yoenis Cespedes ($3,400) as one-offs.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.