MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/14/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 8:06 p.m. EST.
It's Justin Verlander ($12,000) and Shane Bieber ($11,200) at the top of this slate's pitching wishlist. They're facing the Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers, respectively, so the matchups are good. These two offer the best floor/ceiling combination on the slate, and while they'll be popular, it's risky to go anywhere else on the bump.
If I had to roster a hurler other than Bieber and JV, I could be talked into Caleb Smith ($9,000) in a road date with the light-hitting San Francisco Giants. Smith is probably too expensive, which should keep him under-owned, but with career marks of a 12.3% swinging-strike rate and 25.9% strikeout rate, there's upside here.
If you feel like getting weird, German Marquez ($6,500) is useable in his Coors date with a Pittsburgh Pirates offense that isn't very good. Marquez had a 24.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging-strike rate in 2019. He'll be contrarian and will give you a ton of flexibility with your bats.
The Colorado Rockies are at home versus Chris Archer, who has given up at least a 39.1% hard-hit rate in each of the last three seasons. That's not going to play well at Coors, so get to the Rox if you can. It'll be tough, however, to stack them and use Verlander or Bieber as just one Colorado hitter is priced under $3,400.
Whenever the Houston Astros face a lefty, they need to be on our radar, and they're taking on old friend Dallas Keuchel tonight. While Keuchel is great at limiting fly-balls, he has a tough time getting whiffs (17.9% strikeout rate over the last two years). All the usual Houston studs are in play, and you can look to Carlos Correa ($3,200) and Yulieski Gurriel ($2,220) for cheaper exposure to this lineup.
The San Diego Padres are a sneaky-good stacking option, and their cheap salaries come in handy. They're at home against Madison Bumgarner, owner of a 43.8% hard-hit rate and 41.6% fly-ball rate in 2019. The Padres have some dudes who maul southpaws -- highlighted by Fernando Tatis Jr. ($3,500), Manny Machado ($3,000), Tommy Pham ($2,600) and Wil Myers ($2,200). Pham is a killer point-per-dollar play and is worth checking out as a one-off option even if you don't stack San Diego.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.