KBO Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 6/13/20
Before you fill out KBO DFS lineups for Saturday morning, there are a couple of major logistical notes to be aware of.
First, although four of the games don't start until 4 am Eastern, the slate will lock at 1 am. That allows us to get the first game of the double-header between the KT Wiz and Samsung Lions, which avoids a headache with their lineups. However, it also means we're not going to have lineups for the other games before lock hits.
Second, there's rain in the forecast. A lot of it.
Based on the forecasts at My KBO Stats, the only game projected to go on without a hitch is the one between the Lotte Giants and LG Twins. All others have at least some chance of getting rained out, meaning we're going to be walking on eggshells across the board.
What could go wrong?
Still, there's a long time before the games start, so forecasts could always shift. Let's look at the slate and see how things shape up in case that does happen.
Here's a list of the starters on the slate, sorted by the salary of their team's starting pitcher slot on FanDuel. The individual and team-level stats are from 2020 with team runs per game totals being via My KBO Stats and team strikeout rates via Baseball Reference. The park factor data is multi-year run factors from STATIZ with 1000 being neutral and a higher number favoring hitters.
| Pitcher | Salary | L/R | Opp. | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR% | Opp. R/G | Opp. K% | Park Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Buchanan (Samsung) | $27 | R | KT | 3.79 | 1.18 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 5.97 | 18.4% | 1093 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne (KT) | $26 | R | @SAM | 4.29 | 1.31 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 4.82 | 18.7% | 1093 |
| Woo-chan Cha (LG) | $26 | L | LOT | 3.97 | 1.44 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 17.2% | 959 |
| Ki-young Im (Kia) | $25 | R | @SK | 3.34 | 1.21 | 20.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 4.00 | 18.6% | 1038 |
| Seung-won Moo (SK) | $24 | R | KIA | 4.68 | 1.38 | 23.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 5.06 | 16.2% | 1038 |
| Hui-kwan Yu (Doosan) | $24 | L | @HAN | 3.60 | 1.57 | 7.7% | 7.7% | 1.3% | 3.15 | 20.4% | 978 |
| Jae-hak Lee (NC) | $24 | R | KIW | 5.08 | 1.31 | 14.1% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 5.53 | 18.6% | 1012 |
| Se-woong Park (Lotte) | $22 | R | @LG | 5.40 | 1.52 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 5.67 | 16.4% | 959 |
| Hyun-hee Han (Kiwoom) | $21 | R | @NC | 4.96 | 1.53 | 15.8% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 6.94 | 17.3% | 1012 |
| Seung-ju Han (Hanwha) | $20 | R | DOO | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 6.21 | 15.2% | 978 |
Thankfully, that non-rain LG versus Lotte contest gives us an option both at pitcher and within our stacks. Let's dissect how we should handle this slate.
Pitchers
Because that LG versus Lotte game seems the safest from a rain perspective, let's start there by outlining the appeal of Woo-chan Cha (LG Starting P; $26).
Cha has allowed a lot of base-runners this year, which bakes some risk into his profile. But he also has a 20.8% strikeout rate, and his 17.0% strikeout rate in 2019 is highest among the pitchers on the slate who were starters that season. Cha's also in the best park for pitchers that we've got.
The matchup with Lotte is best categorized as "fine." They don't strike out a ton, but they are just eighth in runs per game. With all the rain in the forecast elsewhere, Cha is probably the highest-floor option we've got.
Elsewhere, Ki-young Im (Kia Starting P; $25) is in a tough park for pitchers, which matters. Everything outside of that, though, points to him as being a quality option.
Through six starts, Im has brought his ERA down more than two runs from where it was last year (to 3.34 from 5.73). However, it's worth noting that last year's mark came across just 12 appearances and 8 starts, and he has validated this year's number with impressive peripherals. His 20.9% strikeout rate is second-best on the slate, and he pairs it with a slate-best 3.0% walk rate. That makes it easier to believe his hot start.
The matchup is solid, too. The SK Wyverns are ninth in runs per game and strike out at an 18.6% clip. Im is the top alternative to Cha as long as you are comfortable with the weather at Happy Dream Stadium.
Normally, we would never consider Hui-kwan Yu (Doosan Starting P; $24). His strikeout rate is 7.7%, down from 9.2% last year, and we need a lot more juice out of our pitchers than that. A matchup with the Hanwha Eagles changes the equation.
Hanwha is averaging just 3.15 runs per game, 0.85 less than any other team, and their strikeout rate is almost two percentage points clear of the rest of the league. If any team can give Yu upside, it's them. Yu is good at preventing runs despite all the balls in play, so against a Hanwha team that's swinging a wet noodle even after their wholesale roster changes, he is finally on the DFS radar.
Stacks
As mentioned, we can also get some sticks from the LG and Lotte matchup. If we're pumping up Cha as a pitcher, we're clearly stacking his teammates against Se-woong Park.
Park has a 5.40 ERA, largely fueled by his issues with walks and homers. His 8.8% walk rate and 3.7% home-run rate are both highest on the slate. The walk issues were present for Park last year, too, meaning we should expect LG to at least get runners on base here.
The downside of LG is that they just lost their big slugger, Roberto Ramos, to injury, which negatively impacts the entire lineup. Still, between Hyun Soo Kim ($14), Eun-Sung Chae ($11), and Chun-Woong Lee ($9), they've got hitters with upside (Kim and Chae with their sticks and Lee with his legs). They'll work if the weather remains shaky elsewhere.
If you're comfortable with the weather in the Doosan versus Hanwha game, we can go back there for a stack. Doosan is facing Seung-ju Han, one of the new faces after Hanwha's roster turnover. The 19-year-old is making his KBO debut after he was a second-round pick earlier this year. I can think of better initiations than having to face the defending league champs in your first start.
Most of the Doosan hitters have gotten salary hikes since the start of the year, which could make it tough to get to Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17), Jae-Hwan Kim ($17), or Jae-Il Oh ($15). You can get to their five-hitter, though, in Joo-Hwan Choi ($11). Choi's slugging percentage is actually higher than Kim's, aided by his six dingers through 132 plate appearances. The hope here is that using Choi and a value second stack will allow you to afford Doosan's studs.
In looking for those value plays, you could turn to the Kiwoom Heroes. They're facing Jae-hak Lee, who does a nice job suppressing homers. However, that's true of all but three pitchers on the slate, meaning the opportunity cost of stacking here is reduced. Lee doesn't get many strikeouts and will let up his fair share of walks, putting Kiwoom's sticks in a relatively solid spot.
The plus of Kiwoom is that their top values are in high-leverage spots in the order. Keon-Chang Seo ($11) is likely to hit leadoff, and Dong-Won Park ($10) generally occupies the five-hole. Both got the night off Friday, but that was likely due to platoon issues for Seo and a day of rest for Park, who is a catcher. With a righty out there, we can expect them back in their regular slots.
Seo has a couple of paths to upside with his seven steals and .455 slugging percentage, and Park is sporting a melt-yo-face-off .346/.404/.625 slash. Given their low-cost salaries, they're the first two Kiwoom hitters to lock in when stacking this team.
