MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/12/20 on FanDuel
Do you miss Major League Baseball? Yeah, we do, too.
Enter MLB Sim Sports, a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for tonight's slate, which locks at 8:06 pm ET. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paddack (R) | $10,000 | ARI | 3.83 | 26.9% | 5.5% | 21.8 % | 96 |
| Jose Berrios (R) | $9,500 | @KAN | 4.28 | 23.2% | 6.1% | 22.1 % | 93 |
| Drew Smyly (L) | $8,600 | MIA | 4.73 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 24.9 % | 82 |
| Griffin Canning (R) | $8,100 | SEA | 4.31 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 25.9 % | 88 |
| Eric Lauer (L) | $7,700 | CIN | 4.74 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 22.8 % | 102 |
| Mike Leake (R) | $7,500 | @SDP | 4.79 | 15.2% | 3.2% | 25.0 % | 88 |
| Alex Wood (L) | $7,400 | @ATL | 4.67 | 19.6% | 5.9% | 22.7 % | 106 |
| Pablo Lopez (R) | $7,200 | @SFG | 4.44 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 24.0 % | 89 |
| Marco Gonzales (L) | $7,000 | @LAA | 5.08 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 19.8 % | 102 |
| Jose Urquidy (R) | $6,800 | CWS | 3.77 | 25.9% | 4.3% | 25.6 % | 107 |
| Wade Miley (L) | $6,400 | @MIL | 4.80 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 20.7 % | 102 |
| Jorge Lopez (R) | $6,300 | MIN | 5.01 | 18.4% | 8.0% | 20.9 % | 119 |
| Jordan Lyles (R) | $6,200 | CLE | 4.53 | 24.4% | 9.2% | 22.1 % | 96 |
| Jefry Rodriguez (R) | $6,100 | @TEX | 5.32 | 16.8% | 10.0% | 25.5 % | 89 |
| Dylan Cease (R) | $6,000 | @HOU | 4.60 | 24.9% | 10.7% | 16.3 % | 129 |
| Felix Hernandez (R) | $5,900 | LOS | 5.02 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 20.2 % | 122 |
| Antonio Senzatela (R) | $5,600 | PIT | 5.50 | 13.1% | 9.8% | 20.1 % | 94 |
| Derek Holland (L) | $5,500 | @COL | 5.16 | 25.0% | 14.3% | 24.1 % | 98 |
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on tonight's slate.
Pitchers
This is a pretty underwhelming group for a nine-game slate, but at least it means you'll have more funds available for your favorite stacks.
Chris Paddack ($10,000) is a pretty safe bet as arguably the most talented pitching on the board. The matchup against Arizona isn't a boost for punchouts, but they aren't an offensive powerhouse, either.
Drew Smyly ($8,700) and Griffin Canning ($8,100) stand out as solid values in plum spots against the Marlins and Mariners, respectively. Although Smyly had an unsavory 4.73 SIERA last year, he's still capable of racking up punchouts, and Oracle Park should help suppress runs.
Stacks
Derek Holland is visiting Coors Field, so feel free to load up on the Colorado Rockies. Don't be deterred by the high strikeout rate above, as that came over a small sample of eight starts. Between the rotation and bullpen, Holland only managed a 21.8% strikeout rate and 12.0% walk rate over 84.1 innings in 2019. He projects as a poor pitcher again in 2020, per FanGraphs.
Any of the top four in the order are fair game against the southpaw (including the lefty sticks), and Ian Desmond ($3,200) is a solid value at this price point. Due to the top bats being priced up, you'll likely need to roster Smyly or Canning at pitcher to make things fit.
The Los Angeles Angels should be able to plate some runs against lefty Marco Gonzales, who has one of the lesser strikeout rates on the board. Steamer projects him for a middling 4.63 ERA this season. Mike Trout ($4,500) tops the wish list, of course, and Justin Upton ($2,700) and Albert Pujols ($2,000) are great ways to save some cash.
And sticking with west coast teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers are also in a great spot against an over-the-hill Felix Hernandez. Pretty much anyone in the first five spots of the order is a good bet to homer, with Justin Turner ($3,300) being the cheapest of the bunch. Will Smith ($2,900) is a solid value further down.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
