MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/8/20 on FanDuel
Do you miss Major League Baseball? Yeah, we do, too.
Enter MLB Sim Sports, a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for tonight's slate, which locks at 8:02 pm ET. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom (R) | $11,600 | STL | 3.29 | 31.7% | 5.5% | 23.6 % | 94 |
| Zach Eflin (R) | $9,100 | CHC | 4.90 | 17.9% | 6.6% | 23.5 % | 108 |
| Kenta Maeda (R) | $8,500 | @BAL | 4.22 | 26.2% | 8.4% | 21.5 % | 86 |
| Masahiro Tanaka (R) | $7,900 | KAN | 4.44 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 22.1 % | 93 |
| Jon Lester (L) | $7,400 | @PHI | 4.49 | 21.6% | 6.8% | 23.9 % | 109 |
| Dakota Hudson (R) | $7,000 | @NYM | 5.06 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 21.5 % | 109 |
| Jakob Junis (R) | $6,700 | @NYY | 4.63 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 23.4 % | 119 |
| Justus Sheffield (L) | $6,500 | @TOR | 4.57 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 24.7 % | 94 |
| Matt Shoemaker (R) | $6,200 | SEA | 4.54 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 25.9 % | 88 |
| Alex Cobb (R) | $5,500 | MIN | 4.96 | 13.3% | 3.3% | 20.9 % | 119 |
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on tonight's slate.
Pitchers
Jacob deGrom ($11,600) is the cream of the crop this evening as the only hurler with a sub-4.00 SIERA and a strikeout rate over 30%. The Cardinals shouldn't pose a big threat to him coming away with a big fantasy score.
It's pretty slim pickings after deGrom, with Kenta Maeda ($8,500) being the only other arm standing out. Maeda owns the next best strikeout rate at 26.2% and has a gimme matchup against a weak Orioles lineup. However, despite wearing a different uniform now, his history of lower pitch counts with the Dodgers probably docks his upside in the sim. Still, he's the only guy we can reasonably expect to get within striking distance of deGrom.
Stacks
The Minnesota Twins should be a popular stack against Alex Cobb, who struggled over three 2019 starts and performed poorly in 2018. Season-long projections all agree that he isn't a candidate for improvement, predicting an ERA above 5.00 in 2020.
You always want Nelson Cruz ($3,700), but you don't necessarily have to pay top dollar for a formidable Twins stack, with guys like Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver, and Jorge Polanco priced from $3,300-$3,100.
The New York Yankees are also in a favorable spot, taking on right-hander Jakob Junis at home. Junis posted some ho-hum numbers across the board in 2019, and more of the same is projected this year.
A simulated Yankee Stadium should give a boost to home runs, so don't hesitate to pay the premium on Aaron Judge ($4,000) or Giancarlo Stanton ($3,900). There's solid value lower in the order, too, between Aaron Hicks ($3,000), Gary Sanchez ($3,400), Luke Voit ($2,500), Gio Urshela ($2,700), and Brett Gardner ($2,100).
If you're looking for a less trendy stack, then the Chicago Cubs may do the trick against Zach Eflin. Although Eflin is the second-most expensive pitcher, it's a rather curious distinction given his fairly uninspiring peripherals. Steamer isn't buying into Eflin, either, pegging him for a 5.04 ERA and 19.0% strikeout rate.
Citizens Bank Park is another locale with the home run in mind, so take your pick of Anthony Rizzo ($3,800), Kris Bryant ($3,700), Javier Baez ($3,600), Ian Happ ($3,400), and Kyle Schwarber ($3,200). Schwarber is especially enticing at this price tag after posting a .282 ISO last season (12th-best among qualified hitters).
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
