MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/7/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 8:02 p.m. EST.
When Gerrit Cole ($12,000) pitches, he's usually at the top of our wishlist, and that's true today despite a tough matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays. Cole ended 2019 with a 2.62 SIERA, 39.9% strikeout rate and 16.8% swinging-strike rate -- mind-boggling numbers. He's got the best floor/ceiling combination on what is a loaded pitching slate.
Mike Clevinger ($11,200) and Lucas Giolito ($10,500) are also smashing plays and have much better matchups. Clevinger is up against the Kansas City Royals while Giolito is facing the Detroit Tigers. Fading Cole in favor of either of these two is enticing as you can save cash and not lose that much in the ceiling department.
I also like Caleb Smith ($9,700) in a home date with the Seattle Mariners, a team that struck out 24.8% of the time last year against lefties. While Smith doesn't have as high of a floor as the other arms we've mentioned, he's had strikeout rates of 27.0% and 26.0% in the past two campaigns, so the upside is there if he's on. With guys like Blake Snell ($8,200), Zac Gallen ($8,800), Sonny Gray ($9,000) and Corey Kluber ($9,200) cheaper, Smith shouldn't see much ownership.
Josh James ($6,800) is worth a look if you're set on paying down -- although that's a risky move with all the good pitching on this huge slate. Working as a reliever last season, James recorded a 37.6% strikeout rate across 61 1/3 MLB frames. He worked 92 2/3 innings as a starter in Double-A in 2018 and put up a 35.2% strikeout rate. His matchup with the Baltimore Orioles (.308 wOBA last season) is a good one.
If you can pay up for them, which isn't going to be easy to do since we'll want to spend big on the bump, the Houston Astros (facing Kohl Stewart) and Los Angeles Dodgers (getting Jeff Hoffman) are in great spots.
I'm not going to rattle off all the stars on the Dodgers and Astros -- you know who they are and you should roster them if you can -- but I will hit on a few of the better value options. Josh Reddick ($2,100) and Yulieski Gurriel ($2,800) are hitting eighth and seventh, respectively, for Houston. Corey Seager ($2,900), Will Smith ($2,800) and Gavin Lux ($2,300) are cheap ways to get access to the Dodgers and can be stacked as they're hitting 6-7-8.
I love the Arizona Diamondbacks as a cheaper stack, something we need on this slate. Arizona is taking on Zach Davies, owner of a 7.2% swinging-strike rate in 2019 and a guy who has never posted a strikeout rate above 19.8%, with a 15.2% clip last year. Starling Marte ($3,200) and Ketel Marte ($3,400) are atop the order and are the only D-Backs priced above $2,800. Eduardo Escobar ($2,800), David Peralta ($2,300), Christian Walker ($2,400) and Kole Calhoun ($2,600) are slotted 3-4-5-6.
Andrew Suarez has been mauled by righties in his career (.374 wOBA and 44.7% hard-hit rate), and the Oakland Athletics have some really good right-handed sticks. Marcus Semien ($3,500) is leading off, and Matt Chapman ($3,200) is in the three hole. After those two, no other A's righty is above $2,700. Ramon Laureano ($2,700) is slotted second while Khris Davis ($2,700), Mark Canha ($2,600), Stephen Piscotty ($2,400) and Sean Murphy ($2,000) are hitting 5-6-7-8.
The Chicago White Sox are a sneaky-good stack in their clash with Michael Fulmer. In 2018, his last season, Fulmer struggled to a 19.7% strikeout rate and 39.5% hard-hit rate. Tim Anderson ($3,000), Yoan Moncada ($3,000), Jose Abreu ($3,600), Yasmani Grandal ($3,400) and Edwin Encarnacion ($3,400) are hitting in the one through five spots. You can also go cheap with Eloy Jimenez ($2,800) and/or Luis Robert ($2,600), who are slotted sixth and eighth, respectively.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.