MLB Sim Sports Picks for 5/23/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 8:02 p.m. EST.
This is not a good pitching slate. The guy I feel most confident about is Sonny Gray ($10,000), who is at home versus the San Diego Padres. While the Padres get a park boost in Cincy, they offer strikeout upside as they owned the second-highest strikeout rate (26.3%) in 2019. Gray had a really good campaign a year ago, finishing with a 3.97 SIERA and 28.9% strikeout rate.
After Gray, it feels like a stretch to really like anyone. Zack Greinke ($8,500) is a bet on talent, but his matchup at the Boston Red Sox is brutal. In 2019, Greinke posted a 3.96 SIERA and 23.1% strikeout rate. On a normal slate, I wouldn't venture here given the matchup, but on a weak pitching slate like this one, Greinke is a viable option.
Chris Archer ($8,000) is volatile, but at home against the San Francisco Giants is a nice enough spot that we can stomach the risk today. Archer has had a strikeout rate of at least 25.0% for five straight seasons. The problem is that he also gives up a lot of hard contact, ending 2019 with a 40.1% hard-hit rate. San Fran eases those concerns some, however, as they recorded just a .295 wOBA last season.
We have a Philadelphia Phillies-Colorado Rockies game at Coors with Aaron Nola and Jeff Hoffman on the bump. We're not going to spend much time here because you know you want exposure to Coors. Moving on.
Sandy Alcantara is on the road at the Washington Nationals, putting the Nats on the stacking radar. Victor Robles ($3,100), Trea Turner ($3,500) and Juan Soto ($3,700) are hitting 1-3-4 and are in a great spot if you can pay up for them. Adam Eaton ($2,600) is slotted second and is a great value target, and Eric Thames ($2,900), who is hitting fifth, is always capable of a tater versus a righty.
I also really like the Cincinnati Reds at homer-happy Great American Ball Park against the low-strikeout Zach Davies. Davies has a 16.8% strikeout rate across 614 1/3 career innings, and he's surrendered a hard-hit rate north of 38.0% in each of the past two seasons. That's exactly the recipe for stacking success.
Shogo Akiyama ($2,500), Joey Votto ($2,800), Eugenio Suarez ($3,600), Mike Moustakas ($3,600) and Nick Castellanos ($2,900) are hitting one through five, in that order. Castellanos and Akiyama are great point-per-dollar choices, and so is Jesse Winker ($2,300), who is in the six hole. You can craft a cheap Reds stack that can help you get exposure to Coors.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.