MLB Sim Sports Picks for 5/16/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 8 p.m. EST.
Glasnow posted a 33.0% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate last year, though he pitched just 60 2/3 frames. The O's had a .308 wOBA in 2019, the sixth-worst clip in the game. The upside here is immense, but we do have some other high-upside arms on the slate.
Lucas Giolito ($9,600) is one of them. He's taking on a Toronto Blue Jays team that held a meager .310 wOBA in 2019 along with a 24.9% strikeout rate. Giolito finished his breakout campaign with a 32.3% strikeout rate and 15.0% swinging-strike rate. He could pile up strikeouts in this spot.
Matt Boyd ($10,500) is actually the most expensive pitcher on the slate. He is usually a risky play in DFS as a guy with a big-time ceiling as well as a low floor. The ceiling gets a lift today thanks to a date with the Seattle Mariners, owners of a 25.5% strikeout rate a year ago. Boyd recorded a 30.2% strikeout rate in 2019, but the risk is in his 40.7% hard-hit rate.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are at home against Joe Ross, who had a 5.17 SIERA and just a 19.3% strikeout rate last year. Starling Marte ($3,100) is too cheap as a leadoff bat with power and speed. He's followed in the order by Ketel Marte ($3,800) and Eduardo Escobar ($3,600). David Peralta ($2,900) is hitting cleanup and is one of the better point-per-dollar plays on the slate. In 2019, Peralta put up a .352 wOBA and 42.3% hard-hit rate against righties.
The other stack I like today is the Tampa Bay Rays, and they are pretty cheap. Tampa is up against Kohl Stewart, who has an ugly 12.7% strikeout rate across 62 big-league innings. Outside of Brandon Lowe ($3,700) and Austin Meadows ($3,500) -- who are hitting 1-2 -- no Rays bat is over $2,800, which is perfect for a slate with so many appealing high-priced hurlers. While everyone in Tampa Bay's lineup is in play, Ji-Man Choi ($2,800) is a priority for me. With the platoon advantage last season, Choi mashed his way to a .364 wOBA and 45.4% hard-hit rate.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.