MLB Sim Sports Picks for 5/11/20 on FanDuel
You want choices? You got choices, my friend.
Monday's simulated DFS slate on FanDuel features just eight games, which could, in theory, limit our options at pitcher. One of those games is at Coors Field, so you can whittle that list down even a bit more.
Despite that, this slate is absolutely loaded with aces. Here's the rundown of the starters on the main slate, sorted by their FanDuel salary. The individual pitcher numbers are their marks as starters last year. The opposing numbers are based on current active rosters against that pitcher's handedness.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opponent | SIERA | Strikeout % | Walk % | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | $12,000 | TAM | 2.62 | 39.9% | 5.9% | 24.3% | 99 |
| Jacob deGrom | $11,200 | ARI | 3.29 | 31.7% | 5.5% | 21.8% | 96 |
| Lucas Giolito | $9,800 | SDP | 3.57 | 32.3% | 8.1% | 25.0% | 88 |
| Jose Berrios | $9,500 | DET | 4.28 | 23.2% | 6.1% | 25.6% | 82 |
| Chris Paddack | $8,900 | CWS | 3.83 | 26.9% | 5.5% | 25.6% | 107 |
| Corey Kluber | $8,700 | TOR | 4.68 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 25.2% | 85 |
| Zack Greinke | $8,600 | KAN | 3.96 | 23.1% | 3.7% | 22.1% | 93 |
| Tyler Glasnow | $8,300 | NYY | 3.18 | 33.0% | 6.1% | 23.4% | 119 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | $8,000 | TEX | 3.77 | 22.5% | 3.3% | 26.4% | 97 |
| Matthew Boyd | $7,800 | MIN | 3.61 | 30.2% | 6.4% | 20.4% | 123 |
| Madison Bumgarner | $7,600 | NYM | 4.15 | 24.1% | 5.1% | 23.4% | 114 |
| Andrew Heaney | $7,400 | WAS | 3.87 | 28.9% | 7.3% | 20.2% | 106 |
| Joe Ross | $6,700 | LAA | 5.24 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 20.3% | 109 |
| Danny Duffy | $6,200 | HOU | 4.89 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 15.9% | 137 |
| Johnny Cueto | $5,800 | COL | 5.49 | 19.4% | 13.4% | 22.5% | 86 |
| Jeff Hoffman | $5,500 | SFG | 5.11 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 24.0% | 89 |
Usually, when Gerrit Cole ($12,000) is on the slate, we can lock it and forget it. Here, we don't have to with all the juicy options. Let's dive in and see which of these abundant routes we should dig most.
Pitchers
Clearly, Cole's worth the salary. You can never question that when a dude has a strikeout rate that's tickling 40%. But with two poor pitchers starting in Coors, we're incentivized to spend down, and the slate gives us multiple avenues for doing so.
Because some of the Coors sticks are reasonably affordable, you could make just a slight jump down and use Lucas Giolito ($9,800) against the San Diego Padres. Giolito's strikeout rate last year was 32.3%, and the Padres' active roster boasts a 25.0% mark against righties, meaning it's within his range of outcomes to be the highest-scoring pitcher of the night. He's $2,200 cheaper than Cole and would leave you an average of $3,150 per hitter. You'd have to find a cheap second stack to go hard at Coors, but Giolito's worth considering.
If you want even more money to splurge on hitters, then Tyler Glasnow ($8,300) and Hyun-jin Ryu ($8,000) stand out despite wildly differing matchups.
Glasnow's got a toughy as he's lined up against the New York Yankees. The virtual Bronx Bombers are at full health, meaning Glasnow could get rocked. However, he did have a 3.18 SIERA and 33.0% strikeout rate last year, both of which are elite for just $8,300. If you're shooting for ceiling, Glasnow's got the goods.
Ryu has a better floor, and he does at least have a path to a top-end outing. The floor comes from his skills as Ryu finished 2019 with a 2.32 ERA and 3.77 SIERA. He generally doesn't have the best ceiling, but the opposing Texas Rangers are a lefty-heavy lineup that comes with the highest opponent strikeout rate on the slate. That's enough for us to change the way we view Ryu's potential scoring output.
In addition to those two, Madison Bumgarner ($7,600) and Zack Greinke ($8,600) provide stability without forcing you to break the bank. That's enough to allow us to pass up on Cole just this one time and lock in some high-upside bats.
Stacks
Because we've been talking around it this whole time, it should come as no surprise that our top stacks of the slate will come from Coors as the San Francisco Giants visit the Colorado Rockies.
The preferred route between the two offenses is the Giants thanks to their date with Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman finished 2019 with a 5.11 SIERA and 6.56 ERA across 15 starts, and he doesn't get enough strikeouts to nullify Coors' offensive perks. The Giants' offense isn't great, but their active-roster wRC+ of 89 against righties is actually better than the Rockies' mark of 86.
As mentioned when discussing Giolito, you can dabble in the Giants without blowing your entire salary cap. Brandon Crawford ($3,500) is a bargain for a leadoff hitter in Coors, and both Mike Yastrzemski ($3,600) and Alex Dickerson ($3,500) had isolated slugging percentages of .222 or higher against righties last year while playing in poor parks. Betting on a Buster Posey ($3,100) bounce back would also give you some flexibility, so this is a lush spot to begin your stacks.
The other side of this matchup is obviously cushy, as well. Johnny Cueto has been limited by injuries the past two years, and his most recent full season was disappointing with a 4.52 ERA and 4.49 SIERA. We can certainly lock in some Rockies.
The reason the Giants should be the bigger priority is that they're cheaper and in a better (in theory) matchup. Still, if you roll out Glasnow or Ryu, you'll have the firepower to get to some mixture of Nolan Arenado ($4,300), Charlie Blackmon ($4,100), and Trevor Story ($4,100). Either way you spin it, Coors is the crux of the slate.
Outside of Coors, the top stacking alternatives are the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels. Neither will provide a ton of salary relief, but they can at least give us some solid mid-range ventures.
The Astros are facing a lefty in Danny Duffy, which should push us toward Yuli Gurriel ($2,800). He had a .241 isolated slugging percentage against southpaws last year and is slated to bat sixth. Carlos Correa ($3,200) also flashed pop with the platoon advantage, giving you a couple of reasonable outlets to fill out lineups.
The Angels get righty Joe Ross, and they're in a similar spot where we're mostly pilfering mid-range options. Between Tommy La Stella ($3,300), Justin Upton ($3,000), and Brian Goodwin ($2,400), you have three hitters at decent salaries who had isolated slugging percentages of at least .200 against righties in 2019. Goodwin, specifically, is batting just seventh, but if he helps you get your favorite studs in Coors, he's still worth consideration.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
