MLB Sim Sports Picks for 4/10/20 on FanDuel
Friday's simulated daily fantasy baseball slate on FanDuel is certainly top-heavy at pitcher, and it forces us to make some tough decisions.
We do get some flashy names like Patrick Corbin ($10,000), Lance McCullers ($9,400), and Lance Lynn ($8,100) at our disposal. But all have concerns with Corbin and Lynn in tough matchups and McCullers bringing massive volume question marks.
After that, the bottom starts to fall out, and we're dabbling in some... we'll call them "interesting" pitchers instead of legit talents. Here's the list of starters sorted by their FanDuel salaries. The pitcher-level stats are what they did as starters last year, and the opposing strikeout rates are based on current active rosters against that pitcher's handedness.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opponent | SIERA | Strikeout % | Walk % | Opp. K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | $10,000 | LOS | 3.88 | 28.5% | 8.4% | 21.9% |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | $9,400 | TEX | -- | -- | -- | 25.5% |
| Zac Gallen | $9,000 | COL | 4.24 | 28.7% | 10.8% | 22.5% |
| Lance Lynn | $8,100 | HOU | 3.83 | 28.1% | 6.7% | 16.3% |
| Alex Wood | $7,900 | WAS | 4.67 | 19.6% | 5.9% | 20.2% |
| Drew Smyly | $7,700 | SDP | 4.73 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 24.5% |
| Rick Porcello | $7,600 | MIL | 4.86 | 18.6% | 5.9% | 22.8% |
| Garrett Richards | $7,400 | SFG | 4.93 | 26.8% | 14.6% | 24.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | $7,000 | MIA | 5.02 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 24.4% |
| J.A. Happ | $6,800 | OAK | 4.77 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 19.9% |
| Mike Fiers | $6,600 | NYY | 5.19 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 23.4% |
| Homer Bailey | $6,500 | CWS | 4.60 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 25.6% |
| Kendall Graveman | $6,400 | BOS | -- | -- | -- | 19.9% |
| Kyle Freeland | $6,200 | ARI | 5.19 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 21.5% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | $6,100 | MIN | 4.88 | 20.9% | 8.0% | 20.9% |
| Brett Anderson | $6,000 | NYM | 5.17 | 12.1% | 6.6% | 23.4% |
| Jose Urena | $5,900 | ATL | 4.98 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 22.4% |
| Ryan Weber | $5,500 | SEA | 5.16 | 13.2% | 3.8% | 25.9% |
We do get at least some options on the table, but they're far from plentiful. Let's parse through the data and sort out our top targets for the slate.
Pitchers
Corbin and Lynn are great talents, but they're hard to swallow given their matchups. Only one higher-end pitcher seems to come with lowered concerns and a respectable matchup, and that's Zac Gallen ($9,000).
Gallen as a rookie had the combo we want with these simulations in both top-end results and impressive peripherals. His ERA was down at 2.81, and he helped legitimize that with a 28.7% strikeout rate. The walk rate at 10.8% does put a dent in his floor. But against a Rockies team whose active roster walked just 7.5% of the time against righties and boasted a paltry 86 wRC+, Gallen grades out as the top option of the night.
McCullers carries risk, but he likely deserves to be number two on our list. Before his Tommy John surgery, McCullers had a 3.86 ERA in 2018 with a 3.62 SIERA, and he brought a 26.9% strikeout rate to the table. Although volume will be a red flag given we don't know how the simulation will view him post-surgery, McCullers did average 94.7 pitches per start in that campaign.
His matchup with the Texas Rangers gives him strikeout upside, and it is objectively fun to (virtually) use McCullers again. If you decide not to use Gallen, McCullers seems to be the best alternative.
Stacks
For our hitters, it's tempting to turn right back to that Rockies matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks as the snakes square off with Kyle Freeland.
Freeland's 2019 was one to forget with a 6.73 ERA and 5.19 SIERA. He does get out of Coors Field here, which is a plus, but that low strikeout rate should give the Diamondbacks plenty of changes to rack up points with balls in play.
Stacking the Diamondbacks lets us have a little Marte partay without breaking the bank. Starling Marte ($3,100) and Ketel Marte ($3,500) occupy the top two spots in the order, and both bring dual sources of upside thanks to the speed component. With Eduardo Escobar ($2,900), Christian Walker ($2,700), and Nick Ahmed ($2,300) all in the top six spots in the batting order, the Diamondbacks are a cost-effective stack that will help you splurge a bit with your second stack if you so choose.
These savings are fortuitous with the Minnesota Twins facing Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez had flashes of upside last year, but he finished the season with a 4.88 SIERA and 5.38 ERA, which should allow the Twins' bomba squad to live up to the nickname.
Nobody on this team is overly expensive, so affording them alongside a Diamondbacks stack should be pretty easy. The big bargain is newcomer Josh Donaldson ($3,000), who finished last year with a .271 isolated slugging percentage against righties. Even if you wind up leaving a bit of salary on the table, the Diamondbacks and Twins stand out as the top stacks of the slate.
If you're looking for a splurge-worthy one-off play, give Christian Yelich ($4,400) a sniff. He's facing Rick Porcello, whose strikeout rate fell to 17.2% against lefties last year, allowing them to cobble together a .284/.341/.487 slash. Getting up to $4,400 should be no problem with the way this slate breaks down, and Yelich is very much worth the coin.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
