Howard’s spray chart of batted balls this season, we see that he hits basically all of his ground balls and a fair share of line drives to the right side, right where the second baseman is playing in a shift, likely resulting in an out and not a run batted in.
So we know that Howard hits a lot of balls to the right side. Let’s look at Howard’s splits with no men on base versus when hitting with runners on and see if anything stands out.
| Situation | BA | OPS |
|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty | .183 (173) | .549 (170) |
| With Men On | .260 (115) | .812 (63) |
| W/ RISP on | .253 (115) | .839 (53) |
Looking at the chart above, Howard’s batting average and his on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) are listed in three different situations, with the MLB rank in parenthesis. His batting average with the bases empty is terrible at just .183, and his OPS is not much better at .549. These numbers both improve when Howard hits with runners on base and with runners in scoring position (RISP), with his OPS jumping 290 points to .839 with runners in scoring position. Based on these splits, it’s safe to assume that Howard takes advantage of hitting against a normally aligned defense, as opposed to one that is in a shift. While his batting average ranks in the low 100’s with runners on, his OPS is fringe top-50 with RISP, which is likely why he is able to drive is so many runs while posting such poor numbers elsewhere.
Even though Howard is on pace to drive in 100 runs for the seventh time in his career, he isn't a valuable player to the Phillies, as evident by his negative fWAR. Since 2009, Howard hasn’t posted a fWAR of better than 1.5, and his career best fWAR of 5.8 came way back in 2006. His isolated power (ISO) of .156 this season is the lowest it’s been in his career, and is only the second time it’s been below .200 for a season (it was .199 last year).
Howard is owed $50 million over the next two seasons, with a club option for $23 million in 2017. Even though he has been successful at driving in runs, it might be worth it to the Phillies to cut him loose and eat the money, as this one-trick pony is causing his team more harm than good. Long story short, Howard is more effective when hitting with runners on base because he doesn't have to hit into a shift, not because he's a "clutch" (for lack of a better word) hitter.