5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 9/13/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Tyler Beede, SP, San Francisco Giants ($5,700)
Tyler Beede's season-long numbers aren’t great as his 5.33 ERA and 1.58 WHIP don’t indicate that he’s a pitcher worth using. But as a super cheap play, I like his upside tonight.
Over Beede’s last four starts, he’s had four consecutive tough matchups against the Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks, St. Louis Cardinals, and Los Angeles Dodgers. In those four games, Beede showed off some improvements, as he managed a 3.38 ERA in that span with an 11% swinging-strike rate.
The main reason for liking Beede tonight is his matchup against the Miami Marlins. The Marlins have been one of the worst offenses in baseball all season, and they rank in the bottom three in both team-wide wOBA and wRC+. Beede should be a safe option for around five innings and a decent chance at a win. If you elect to go super cheap at starting pitcher, he's not a bad dart throw.
Renato Nunez, 3B, Baltimore Orioles ($2,900)
Nunez has taken over as the everyday cleanup hitter for the Baltimore Orioles and has been a better version of himself recently. Over his last 98 plate appearances, Nunez has an .854 OPS, which is impressive on its own, but he’s also struck out in just 14.3% of his plate appearances in that time while walking 9.2% of the time. If Nunez, with his huge power, is becoming a more well-rounded hitter, then he’s a big value at this price no matter who he’s facing.
Tonight, Nunez faces Zimmermann, who has been bad in every sense in 2019. Whether you look at his 6.27 ERA, 1.434 WHIP, 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings, or 16 home runs allowed in 99 innings, he’s very clearly a great matchup for opposing hitters.
Gavin Lux, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,600)
Gavin Lux remains in this article as he’s still way too cheap given his combination of placement in a great lineup and elite prospect pedigree.
A reason for confidence in Lux’s production increasing is that his plate approach is great for such a young prospect. In his first 32 plate appearances, it is very encouraging that he’s struck out just six times while walking three times. There’s clearly power and speed in his profile, but the fact he hasn’t been overmatched against MLB pitching is a great sign that he's going to start putting up numbers.
Nick Martini, OF, San Diego Padres ($2,900)
Luis Urias, SS, San Diego Padres ($2,800)
After being released by the Oakland Athletics, Nick Martini has joined the San Diego Padres and has played an everyday role against right-handed pitching. The results have been very good. In 48 plate appearances, Martini is hitting .341 and is striking out just 18.8% of the time. He’s also been the number-two hitter in every start for the Padres, which is a big reason he’s an obvious value tonight.
Luis Urias was considered to be one of the top prospects in baseball upon his call-up earlier this season, and despite his season-long struggles, he’s shown signs of improvement recently, Over his last eight games, Urias is hitting .385 and has a 4-to-5 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
Jeff Hoffman is the starter against Martini, Urias and the Padres tonight. Other than the obvious Coors effect, Hoffman represents a great matchup for Martini. In six home starts this season, Hoffman has a 7.33 ERA and has allowed opposing hitters to blast nine home runs with a 1.050 OPS in 123 plate appearances.
James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.