3 Under-the-Radar MLB FanDuel Plays for 9/12/19
When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of Vegas totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found that everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-owned plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Brendan McKay, P, Tampa Bay Rays
FanDuel Price: $7,100
A smaller seven-game slate brings us a massive question -- can you fade Justin Verlander?
With fewer options across the board, it can be tough to pass on Verlander -- who is clearly the best option on this slate -- and leave those points on the board. But, when rostering Verlander tonight, you limit your lineup's ability to have high-priced hitters, due to his high salary and the lack of overall value tonight. The question becomes, whether we can find another pitcher who offers some potential upside and allows more flexibility with roster construction. Cue Brendan McKay.
McKay will be on the mound tonight for the Tampa Bay Rays, who are on the road to take on the Texas Rangers, a team worth attacking tonight. While this is a negative park shift for McKay, the Rangers come in with a 26.0% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the second-worst in the league. This should play in the favor for McKay, who is holding a very impressive 28.1% strikeout rate this season, tied for third-highest on the slate.
Abraham Toro, 3B, Houston Astros
FanDuel Price: $3,100
The Houston Astros have a massive 5.54 implied run total tonight, but will any of their hitters be lower owned?
There are only seven games on the slate, two of which could be impacted by rain, thus condensing the ownership even further. This can become a problem in tournaments, but we need to find any advantage we can possibly get, which is why a player like Abraham Toro should be of some interest tonight.
Toro should almost certainly be hitting in the bottom third of the lineup, which can turn some DFS players away, but the salary relief along with lower ownership is something to embrace on a slate like this. He has a very small 17-game sample size to draw from, but in that time, he has a .286 ISO and 25.0% home-run-to-fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Good numbers, but again, a small sample size, so take it all with a grain of salt. The matchup is worth attacking regardless of the sample size, though, since he is up against Homer Bailey, who is allowing 1.34 home runs per nine innings and a 42.9% hard-hit rate to lefty hitters. The Astros are going to be popular team tonight, but dropping down to the bottom half of their lineup -- namely Toro -- can present a shot at lower ownership in tournaments.
Reese McGuire, C, Toronto Blue Jays
FanDuel Price: $2,900
Catchers always see lower ownership in MLB DFS, and we shouldn't forget that when building tournament lineups.
On average, catchers produce fewer fantasy points, which is why they are passed on for the most part. But we might want to consider a catcher, Reese McGuire, as a great tournament option tonight.
The Toronto Blue Jays come in with a 4.87 implied run total tonight and are up against Jhoulys Chacin, who is someone we want to stack against. Chacin -- with his second team this season -- is allowing a 6.31 xFIP, 1.62 home runs per nine innings, and a whopping 52.2% hard-hit rate to lefty hitters. Those are some of the worst numbers you will find on this slate, meaning you want to stack against him.
McGuire doesn't have a ton of Major League experience, but he's since his most action this season and is carrying a .294 ISO, 40.5% hard-hit rate, and 28.6% home-run-to-fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. I'm fully on board with the Blue Jays tonight for their matchup, for their cheaper prices, and hopefully, with McGuire going under-owned.
