4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 9/5/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jose Quintana UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
A lower-strikeout rate pitcher versus an average strikeout rate team, who wins?
That is what we have tonight with Jose Quintana on the mound up against the Milwaukee Brewers, where the strikeout prop is set at 5.5. Quintana comes in with a strikeout rate of only 21.2% this season, which is the ninth-highest on the slate. He simply isn't a high-strikeout pitcher. Rather, he lives on a high ground-ball rate to pick up easy outs. The Brewers come in with a 23.3% strikeout rate versus lefty pitchers this season, which is the 12th-worst in the league.
We simply don't see a lot of strikeouts out of Quintana every time he takes the mound, and our projections support that tonight. We have him going for 4.98 strikeouts, which is hitting the UNDER on his prop bet. There is only a bit of juice on the under right now, and it looks to be the right bet.
Martin Perez UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+114)
You might be thinking a 3.5 strikeout prop isn't high at all, any pitcher should be able to do that.
Well, when we have a pitcher who can't strike out batters and we have a team who is very disciplined at the plate, we likely won't be seeing the over hit on this prop. That pitcher is Martin Perez, who comes in with a 19.1% strikeout rate this season, and that team is the Boston Red Sox, who only strike out 21.1% of the time versus lefty pitchers, which is the eighth-lowest in the league.
We also have to deal with the potential that the Boston offense comes out firing -- they do have an implied total sitting at 6.25 -- and posts runs in a hurry, which means Perez will get the hook early. In that instance, Perez won't even be able to face enough hitters in order to pick up strikeouts, something he isn't good at to begin with. The UNDER with positive odds is looking like the right bet tonight.
Miguel Sano To Hit a Home Run (+240)
The Minnesota Twins are breaking records with their home runs this season, and that won't stop tonight.
Miguel Sano is a pure power hitter, and he is our highest projected hitter to go deep tonight and you should be very interested in his home run prop. Sano is boasting a massive .317 ISO, insane 54.2% hard-hit rate, and a 33.9% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus right-handed pitchers this season. It's amazing about how much power Sano truly has, and with this game being in Fenway Park, the hitting environment is just an added bonus.
The matchup for Sano is great, as he is up against Nathan Eovaldi, who is allowing 1.16 home runs per nine innings this season and a 41.4% hard-hit rate. Sano should thrive in this spot versus Eovaldi, who has shown to struggle with allowing home runs this season.
Nicholas Castellanos To Hit a Home Run (+500)
I'm not sure why Nick Castellanos has odds sitting at +500 tonight, but fire away.
Castellanos has four home runs in his last seven games and is hitting them almost every other day since joining the Chicago Cubs. Tonight, he has a chance to extend this hot streak since he is up against Chase Anderson, who is allowing 2.17 home runs per nine innings to righty hitters this season from a bad 46.5% hard-hit rate and a 40.8% fly-ball rate. This game is in Milwaukee, which is a solid hitter's park, only boosting Castellanos potential.
Castellanos comes in with .204 ISO, 41.4% hard-hit rate, and a 39.5% fly-ball ratio versus righty pitchers this season. He is at that 40-40 threshold I like to target for hitters, going against a pitcher who is also at that 40-40 level.