3 Under-the-Radar MLB FanDuel Plays for 9/4/19
When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of Vegas totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found that everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-owned plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Chris Paddack, P, San Diego Padres
FanDuel Price: $7,600
After a hot start to the season, Chris Paddack saw a dip in production, but he seems to be on his way up recently.
A very up and down season for the rookie has seen him look like an emerging star but also look like a pitcher with plenty to learn. We have seen his price in DFS follow along that same path, being up over $10K earlier this season and now sitting in the mid $7K range. On tonight's slate, he is clearly a step or two behind the pitchers more expensive than him, making him a great tournament option. He comes in with a 25.4% strikeout rate and has six or more strikeouts in three of his last five starts.
He will be facing off against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are one of the most average teams you can find in the MLB. There is nothing that suggests Arizona is a team to avoid in this matchup. They come in with a .178 ISO (19th in the league), 88 wRC+ (21st), 35.9% fly-ball rate (16th), and 39.0% hard-hit rate (12th) versus right-handed pitchers.
With Paddack returning to form, he should be able to handle a very average Diamondbacks lineup.
Josh Phegley, C, Oakland Athletics
FanDuel Price: $2,600
The Oakland Athletics set up to be one of the better stacks on the night, but can we find some lower-owned players in their lineup?
A 5.18 implied team total is where we see the Athletics tonight -- which is the fifth-highest on the slate -- but it's tough to say how popular they'll be on a slate that also features the Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers.
What should be clear, though, is that Josh Phegley won't be a higher owned player at all. First off, he is a catcher, which is a position that is either passed on completely, or only the top options are usually considered. On average, catchers score fewer fantasy points compared to other positions.
Regardless of the overall production, Phegley is in a spot for some success due to his matchup. I'm not going to say he is an elite hitter, but he comes in with a .339 wOBA, .213 ISO, super low 10.3% strikeout rate, and 41.1% hard-hit rate versus lefties this season. Those are legit numbers for a player who is under $3K tonight and facing a young pitcher, Patrick Sandoval, who in his short time in the Majors is allowing a 41.9% hard-hit rate and 10.1% walk rate.
The Athletics should be able to jump all over this young pitcher and Phegley likely won't see major ownership.
Mike Yastrzemski, OF, San Francisco Giants
FanDuel Price: $2,900
Michael Wacha will be on the mound for the Cardinals tonight, and while he isn't actually a good pitcher, he is having a bit of success recently. Over his last seven starts, Wacha has allowed three or fewer earned runs six times, giving him the appearance of a good pitcher.
Don't be fooled, though. He comes in with a 5.26 xFIP while allowing 1.71 home runs per nine innings and a 39.5% hard-hit rate versus left-handed hitters this season. Those aren't good numbers in any capacity, and he might seem like a solid option tonight since the Giants aren't a good team.
But if the Giants aren't going to be targeted tonight, taking a shot on a few of their players could pay dividends in tournaments. Mike Yastrzemski is a player to consider due to his cheaper price tag and his splits against right-handed pitchers. He comes in with .272 ISO, 45.1% hard-hit rate, and a surprising 50.6% fly-ball rate in this split. There is some serious home run potential for Yastrzemski tonight, who should be popular.