Offense is down around all of baseball, and the need for bats is great. Specifically, teams are in desperate need of power bats, and many are looking for one ahead of the trade deadline on Thursday afternoon.
The following teams have all been connected to one or some of the available outfielders on the trade market. Their rank among all MLB outfielders is in parenthesis.
| Team | wOBA | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | .283 (30) | .637 (30) | 16 (29) |
| Cincinnati | .297 (28) | .670 (28) | 27 (22) |
| St. Louis | .302 (24) | .675 (24) | 23 (27) |
| Atlanta | .312 (18) | .702 (17) | 37 (11) |
| Kansas City | .313 (16) | .703 (16) | 14 (30) |
| New York | .314 (15) | .711 (15) | 40 (8) |
| Pittsburgh | .344 (7) | .780 (8) | 40 (8) |
Seattle, Cincinnati and St. Louis are the three teams who need the most help. Their outfielders have posted a weighted on-base average (wOBA), on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) and home run totals that are among the worst in baseball. Atlanta, Kansas City, and New York all need some help in the outfield as well, with Pittsburgh's inclusion in the outfield trade market somewhat interesting, given they are in the top 10 in all three categories.
The four best corner outfield candidates on the market are as follows.
| Player | nERD | fWAR | bWAR | wOBA | HR | BA | OBP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Byrd | 1.12 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 0.343 | 20 | 0.266 | 0.316 |
| Alex Rios | 0.48 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.326 | 4 | 0.299 | 0.328 |
| Josh Willingham | 0.65 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.346 | 10 | 0.219 | 0.361 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.99 | -0.1 | -1 | 0.342 | 8 | 0.277 | 0.343 |
Looking strictly at the numbers, Philadelphia's nERD among the four at 1.12, meaning a lineup full of Marlon Byrds would score 1.12 runs a game more than a league-average player. His fWAR and b-WAR are also tops (Baseball-Reference likes Byrd's defense much more than FanGraphs), and he's also hit more home runs than the other three players, with 20.
Los Angeles' As I wrote about recently, it only makes sense to take a chance on a bounce-back candidate if you don't have to pay him gobs of cash to find out. Anyone hoping for a return to former glory with Kemp is doing so armed with nothing more than hope.
For teams in need of some power, Willingham would seem to be the better option than Rios. He's cheaper, and has a better nERD, fWAR, bWAR, wOBA, and OBP, as well as more home runs than Rios.
None of these guys are perfect solutions. But for a team in need of some help in the outfield, they are the best of what's available, and could help a team that is having trouble scoring runs push a few more across the board this season.