4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 9/4/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Shane Bieber OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Are you a Belieber? Well, you should be tonight.
That is Shane Bieber, of course, the best pitcher in action tonight, who has a strikeout prop worth looking at. Bieber comes in with a super solid 31.0% strikeout rate -- which is the highest on the slate -- putting him in a spot to smash the OVER on his 8.5 strikeout prop tonight. He is facing off against the Chicago White Sox, who are carrying a 26.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is the third-worst in the league.
Over his last eight starts, Bieber has posted eight strikeouts or more six times, with three of those games being at nine or more strikeouts. He is on the verge of becoming a true ace in the league and the lowly White Sox shouldn't be too much of an issue for him. The OVER has positive odds tonight, meaning you want to be a Belieber tonight.
Zac Gallen OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)
The San Diego Padres are a high strikeout team -- does that mean we attack them via a strikeout prop tonight?
Zac Gallen is on the mound tonight for the Arizona Diamondbacks and despite his small sample size, he is in a good spot tonight. In his 61.1 innings pitched this season -- his first year in the Majors -- Gallen has posted a 28.2% strikeout rate, which puts him as the second-best on the slate. Over his last 16 innings pitched, Gallen has racked up 22 strikeouts, positioning him for a strong finish to his first Major League campaign.
The matchup tonight is as good as it gets since he is facing off against the Padres, who are holding a 26.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers -- the second-worst in the league. Gallen is a good young pitcher with plenty still to prove and has a very solid matchup tonight versus a high-strikeout team.
Franmil Reyes To Hit a Home Run (+230)
The Indians should be one of the more popular teams tonight in DFS, but from a betting perspective, we want to target specific hitters for their home run props. One such hitter tonight is Franmil Reyes, who comes in as the second-most likely to go deep, according to our projections. That shouldn't come as a surprise since he is carrying a .278 ISO, 48.1% hard-hit rate, and a silly high 30.7% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus righty pitchers this season.
If Reyes is able to get a ball in the air, it has a very good chance of going over the fence. The matchup tonight versus Ivan Nova should also help his cause tonight, since Nova is allowing 1.31 home runs per nine innings to righty hitters.
Hunter Dozier To Hit a Home Run (+500)
The Kansas City Royals might not be the best team in the MLB, but we can look to them to score a few runs tonight.
Hopefully, those runs come off a home run by Hunter Dozier, as he has a home run prop sitting at +500. That presents one of the best values you can find when looking at props, but this one is also not truly a long shot. Our projections have Dozier coming in as the fourth-most likely to go deep tonight.
He is facing off against everyone's favorite home run punching bag, Edwin Jackson. The veteran is struggling yet again this season and is allowing 3.76 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters from a 44.4% hard-hit rate and 31.4% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. This is a dream matchup for Dozier tonight, and his home run prop is as good as you will find.