4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/30/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Aaron Judge To Hit a Home Run (+200)
The New York Yankees are back from their West Coast road trip and returning to the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.
The trip out west proved to be massive for Aaron Judge, who hit six home runs in their nine-game trip, returning to form after a dip in production. Tonight, he is up against Brett Anderson, who comes in with a 4.90 xFIP, allowing 1.22 home runs per nine innings to righty hitters and a 43.5% hard-hit rate. The Yankees have an implied run total at nearly 6.00 tonight, so we are expecting plenty of runs from them.
Judge is carrying massive numbers versus left-handed pitchers this season -- as you would expect -- posting a .346 ISO, insane 65.5% hard-hit rate, and a 38.9% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season. If Judge is able to get the ball in the air versus lefty pitchers, it has a very good chance to make it over the wall.
Charlie Blackmon To Hit a Home Run (+270)
It's Coors Field, and it's Charlie Blackmon, so we're looking at his home run prop.
We all know Coors Field can bring the home runs early and often, so we want to look toward this matchup for a home run prop, especially one with great odds. Blackmon will be facing off against Dario Agrazal, who has just 49 innings pitched this season, and they haven't been good. He is allowing 2.13 home runs per nine innings to lefty hitters this year, from 51.9% fly-ball rate and 36.4% hard-hit rate. While the hard-contact rate isn't horrible, the fly-ball rate is terrible, and you don't want that going into Coors Field.
You always want to side with Blackmon in a situation like this, of course, due to the park factor, but he also has plenty of power in this matchup. A .265 ISO should speak for itself, but he is boasting an xSLG in the 85th percentile this season along with a 40.6% hard-hit rate.
Mark Canha To Hit a Home Run (+310)
The Yankees will have CC Sabathia on the mound, and CC is no stranger to allowing home runs in recent years. This season he is giving up 2.31 home runs per nine to righty hitters from a 42.2% fly-ball rate. A fly-ball rate like that rarely ends well for pitchers at Yankee Stadium, and it can be a solid strategy to attack that via a home run prop when you can.
A +310 prop for Mark Canha is very juicy tonight. At first glance, it might seem like he doesn't have a shot, but he has the power to get it done. A surprising 41.9% hard-hit rate and a 40.5% fly-ball rate, puts him in the 40-40 club I've dubbed as a threshold for power given the right matchup. This is the right matchup for Canha to knock one over the fence.
Dexter Fowler To Hit a Home Run (+500)
Bauer is a great pitcher -- there is no denying his 27.6% strikeout rate -- but he is also getting blasted by lefty hitters this season, allowing a whopping 1.94 home runs per nine innings to them. That's not something you would expect from an All-Star caliber pitcher, but this year a 42.0% fly-ball rate in this split is coming back to bite him.
I'm not going to say Fowler is some amazing power hitter -- only a .177 ISO versus righty pitchers -- but a 39.3% hard-contact rate and 36.9% fly-ball are viable given Bauer's splits this campaign. The odds sitting at +500 should tell you enough about the prop being a bit of a long shot, but I like it tonight.