4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/29/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jacob deGrom UNDER 9.5 Strikeouts (-104)
It's not often you want to bet against Jacob deGrom, but tonight might be the time to do so.
The right-hander's strikeout prop is sitting at 9.5, which is very high, presenting an interesting decision. Do we side with the under that has less juice, essentially betting against one of the best pitchers in the league? Or, do we go for the over -- which would require 10 strikeouts to hit -- along with the extra juice?
Well, let's take a look at some a few things first. deGrom comes in with double-digit strikeouts in three of his last seven starts and now faces the Chicago Cubs, who have a 23.6% strikeout rate versus righty pitchers, which is 10th-worst in the league.
His 31.8% strikeout rate is elite, but the Cubs also bring a .200 ISO versus righty pitchers into this matchup, which is the sixth-best in the league. The Cubs showed that last night, and while they probably won't post six runs against deGrom, the chance he doesn't go super deep into the game is always there. The 9.5 prop is simply too high, and with the better odds, the UNDER is the bet tonight.
Lance Lynn OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Lynn comes in with a 27.4% strikeout rate this season -- second-best on the slate -- and is facing one of the weakest teams in the league. That team is the Mariners, who are holding a 25.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league. Lynn has even money odds on the OVER for his strikeout prop tonight, which is simply too good to pass up.
He has posted eight strikeouts or more in five of his eight starts on this side of the All-Star break. Lynn has been one of the more consistent pitchers this season, and despite being at home in a solid hitter's park, he is in a spot to control the Mariners' hitters and hit the OVER tonight.
Josh Bell To Hit a Home Run (+230)
Home runs and Coors Field go together like peanut butter and jelly, so let's look at a Coors prop tonight.
The Colorado Rockies will have Chi Chi Gonzalez on the mound tonight, who isn't having the best season after being out of the Major Leagues for a few years. He comes in allowing 2.45 home runs per nine innings with a 7.50 xFIP, 48.0% hard-hit rate, and 36.0% fly-ball rate versus lefty hitters this season. Yes, he only has 35 innings pitched this year, but those are among the worst numbers you will find in the Majors, and it doesn't help that he is pitching in Coors Field.
I was on Bell the other night, and he hit a home run, so why not run it back one more time? He comes in with a silly .341 ISO, 47.9% hard-hit rate, and 25.5% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season versus righty pitchers. Yes, his production has dipped a bit since the beginning of the season, but the matchup is too good to pass up tonight.
Willie Calhoun To Hit a Home Run (+270)
The Texas Rangers have a high implied run total tonight, but will we be seeing the long ball?
Facing the Rangers tonight will be Felix Hernandez, who returned from the IL last week, making his first start since May. We have to look back to last season for some numbers on Hernandez to find he allowed 1.85 home runs per nine innings to lefty hitters from a 41.3% hard-hit rate, and a 37.9% fly-ball rate. King Felix has certainly lost a bit of luster on his crown and is a pitcher to actively target.
Willie Calhoun comes in with a home run prop sitting at +270 tonight and is boasting a .215 ISO and 42.0% fly-ball rate in this split. It's going to be a hot one tonight in Texas, as the first pitch temperature is set to be in the 90s, which should be an added boost for hitters.