4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/28/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Max Scherzer OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-144)
Max Scherzer is back from his injury, but what type of form are we going to see him in?
Scherzer returned last week from his month absence, but only pitched four innings with a total of three strikeouts against the Pittsburgh Pirates. We know he is a much better pitcher than that, as is shown by his 34.8% strikeout rate, which is the second-best on the slate. The strikeouts usually come fast and frequently for Scherzer, which is what we should be expecting versus the Baltimore Orioles, as they come in with a 22.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers.
The 7.5 strikeout prop for Scherzer seems a bit low considering the level of dominance we know he truly has. It might be the long injury stint, it might be a weaker showing in his first game back, but one thing is clear. Scherzer can hit the OVER on this prop and that is the bet tonight.
Gerrit Cole OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (+114)
Gerrit Cole is another stud pitcher on this slate, and we have positive odds on the OVER for strikeouts.
It's not often we see one of the best pitchers in the league with positive odds on a prop he is fully capable of hitting the over on. Across his last seven starts, Cole has posted10 strikeouts or more five times, a level no other pitcher on this slate comes close to. He is boasting a 37.3% strikeout -- best on the slate -- and a 15.9% swinging-strike rate, which is second-best on the slate. There is something about taking the under on this prop that just doesn't feel right, going against one of the best pitchers in the league and what he does best.
He is facing off against the Tampa Bay Rays, who come in with a 22.4% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, which is around the league average. Again, you get positive odds on this prop, something that doesn't come around too often for a pitcher of Cole's caliber.
Jake Odorizzi UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
The Chicago White Sox are one of the highest strikeout teams in the league. Does that mean a lower strikeout prop against them is a lock?
That lower strikeout prop comes from Jake Odorizzi, who has a solid 25.0% strikeout rate this season but hasn't pushed towards his upper limit recently. Odorizzi has double-digit strikeouts only one time this season -- opening day -- and hasn't posted eight or more since the beginning of June. Odorizzi simply isn't known as a high strikeout pitcher, which can put this prop into question. He is posting 9.41 strikeouts per nine innings this season, meaning we would need to see him go at least seven innings in order for him to hit the over tonight.
This is where the issue pops up, since he hasn't pitched more than six innings since May 10th. Yes, it's been over three months since he has gone deep into a game, thus preventing him from piling up the strikeouts. The UNDER at even money is backed by our projections, which have him going for 5.62 strikeouts tonight.
Miguel Sano To Hit a Home Run (+230)
It's always nice when we get things to line up with each other, and tonight we should see that via a home run prop.
To start off, our projections have Sano as the number one hitter to hit a home run tonight, so we are looking at why this is the case. He comes in with massive .341 ISO, 53.9% hard-hit rate, and stupidly high 38.1% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus left-handed pitchers this season. Simply put, if Sano is able to get the ball in the air, there is a solid chance it goes over the fence.
Part B of this situation is Detwiler, who is allowing a truly horrible 3.06 home run per nine innings to righty hitters from a 36.0% hard-hit rate and 28.9% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio.
Sano comes in with three home runs in his last four games and looks to be in a prime spot to keep that going tonight, which is part C and the conclusion of this prop.