5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 8/27/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Michael Conforto, OF, New York Mets ($3,200)
This season, Michael Conforto has been completely dominant against right-handed pitching. In 360 plate appearances, Conforto has a .262/.392/.534 slash line with an elite 59-to-70 walk-to-strikeout (BB:K) ratio. Anytime he’s priced below $3,500 against a right-handed starter, he’s a legitimate value.
Tonight, Conforto faces off against Chicago Cubs starter Yu Darvish. Darvish has fixed his early-season walk struggles but has replaced that with recent woes giving up the long-ball. In his last six starts, Darvish has surrendered 10 home runs in 35 1/3 innings. Left-handed hitters this season have a .824 OPS against Darvish.
Phillip Ervin, OF, Cincinnati Reds ($2,300)
Phillip Ervin has finally seen consistent playing time against left-handed pitching, which makes sense given his dominance against lefties this season. In a small sample of 58 plate appearances, Ervin has a .451/.509/.824 slash line in the split with three of his four home runs this season coming against lefties. Ervin’s strikeout rate also drops from 28.2% against righties to 14.0% against lefties.
Ervin’s matchup tonight is Miami Marlins starter Caleb Smith. Smith has been going through a rough patch after a great start to the season. In his last 64 2/3 innings, Smith has a 5.01 ERA, but more concerningly, he’s really struggled with his command, allowing 29 walks and 16 home runs in that span. Ervin’s numbers against lefties speak for themselves, and with Smith struggling as the season winds down, this is a nice spot for Ervin.
Franmil Reyes, OF, Cleveland Indians ($3,100)
Franmil Reyes has started to get hot after a rough start to his Cleveland Indians career. In his last 44 plate appearances, Reyes has a .644 slugging percentage and five home runs. He’s still striking out a lot, but with tonight’s matchup against struggling Detroit Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull, Reyes has a chance for a big night tonight.
Turnbull has been pretty awful since a nice start to the season. In his last 37 innings, Turnbull owns a 6.63 ERA and has surrendered an .896 OPS to opposing batters. With Reyes’ recent hot streak and Turnbull’s current struggles, Reyes is a nice value today.
Ian Desmond, OF, Colorado Rockies ($2,900)
Garrett Hampson, SS, Colorado Rockies ($2,700)
With Raimel Tapia put on the injured list, I imagine both Ian Desmond and Garrett Hampson will be in the lineup regularly against right-handed pitching, but it’s worth monitoring when lineups come out to be sure. If both Hampson and Desmond are in the Colorado Rockies' lineup tonight, their value is exceptional.
At home this season, Ian Desmond is slashing .302/.368/.542 with a 20:43 BB:K ratio in 202 plate appearances, making him an easy play whenever he’s in the lineup at home.
Hampson is a different story. He’s been really bad this season, as shown by his .584 OPS. However he’s started to see more consistent playing time recently and given the matchup tonight, I want as many Rockies as possible in my lineups.
The Rox face Boston Red Sox starter Rick Porcello. Nobody in baseball has given up more earned runs this season than Porcello. In 144 1/3 innings, Porcello has a 5.49 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 26 home runs allowed. He’s been especially bad lately, with a 7.31 ERA and 14 home runs allowed over his last 56 2/3 innings.
Given Porcello's struggles and the fact he has to go to Coors Field, the Rockies are going to be a popular play today.
James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.