4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/26/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Eduardo Escobar To Hit a Home Run (+430)
At +430 odds, Eduardo Escobar's home run prop is amazing and can provide a serious boost to any bankroll. There aren't any top-tier pitching options to look at tonight, so it might be the time to take some shots on a few home runs tonight.
Escobar has been consistent all season long and comes in with 18 of his 29 home runs against righty pitchers, which is the split he has tonight. He is also boasting a .240 ISO, 37.0% hard-hit rate, and a 45.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. This might not be the best hitter's park, but we have Escobar projected as the sixth-most likely hitter to go deep tonight.
That is because he is up against Tyler Beede, who is allowing a whopping 1.86 home runs per nine innings to lefties from a 48.5% hard-hit rate and an 18.2% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season. Those are some seriously bad numbers, and while Beede is slightly better at home this season, the power Escobar has in this split is amazing.
Josh Bell To Hit a Home Run (+200)
Josh Bell had 27 home runs in the first half of the season but only has five on this side. Can he turn that around tonight in a great matchup?
Bell is facing off against Jason Vargas, who is actually a bad pitcher despite what some modest stat lines might say about him. He comes in with a 5.55 xFIP, 1.95 home runs per nine innings, a 44.5% fly-ball rate, and a 37.8% hard-hit rate versus right-handed hitters this season. Those are horrible numbers -- there is really no other way to put it -- and whether you are targeting Vargas in DFS or targeting him for home run props, you should be in a good spot.
Yes, Bell hasn't looked the same as he did in the first half of the year, but he is still carrying a .210 ISO, 22.6% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio, and a 42.7% hard-hit rate versus lefty pitchers this season. The pace might've slowed down for Bell, but the underlying power numbers are there for him in this split.
Aristides Aquino To Hit a Home Run (+340)
Aristides Aquino has homered in half of his games this season. Can he keep that going tonight?
Small sample size or not, Aquino is blasting the ball in the 23 games he has played this year, posting 12 home runs and a .494 ISO. Those numbers are bound to regress, but when you have that kind of power, you can go deep any given night. That is shown by the fact we have him projected as our third-most likely hitter to hit one over the fence tonight, despite being in a solid pitcher's park.
HIs 39.1% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus right-handed pitcher is simply amazing and also due for some regression, but the +340 odds for a hot hitter are too good to pass up tonight.
Adam Wainwright UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-144)
A 5.5 strikeout prop doesn't seem too high, but which side should we take?
A 22.0% strikeout rate this season is where we find Adam Wainwright, who is on the mound tonight to take on the Milwaukee Brewers. The veteran pitcher has never been a big strikeout pitcher and this season is no different, which is why we want to look at the under tonight.
Our projections have Wainwright going for 5.33 strikeouts against the Brewers, which does come close to the line but still sides with the under.
The Brewers have an implied team total set at 5.30, which is one of the highest on the slate and presents some trouble for Wainwright. If Milwaukee can get their offense going early, Wainwright won't make it deep into the game and have the chance to strike many hitters out. It's yet another encouraging sign for the under on this strikeout prop.