4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/23/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jack Flaherty OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+124)
Is Jack Flaherty the best pitcher in the MLB since the All-Star break? My column:
The short answer is yes, at least in my eyes.
He comes in with a 33.1% strikeout rate since the break, holding hitters to a .153 average, and a super low 5.3% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. Hitters come up to the plate, and it's likely that they turn right around and head back to the dugout. Flaherty is keeping everyone in check and has allowed a total of four earned runs in seven starts since the break.
Oh, and the strikeouts, that's why we're here after all. He has 55 punchouts in 43.1 innings pitched since the break, which is good for 11.92 strikeouts per nine innings.
Tonight, he has a good chance to keep that rolling versus the Colorado Rockies, who have a 22.7% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers. The OVER has positive odds tonight, so just bet on Flaherty and what he is doing best right now.
Jacob deGrom UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts (-128)
DeGrom comes in with a 31.1% strikeout rate this season, which is the highest on the slate, but he faces a tough Atlanta Braves lineup. Atlanta is carrying an attackable 22.5% strikeout rate versus righty pitchers this season, and deGrom has shown that a bit, posting 17 strikeouts in 14.1 innings pitched over his last two starts against them.
At that rate, though, deGrom needs to at least seven innings today to come close to hitting the over on his prop of 8.5 tonight. We have deGrom projected to pitch 6.25 innings, racking up 7.86 strikeouts in the process, which would hit the UNDER on this prop.
Jose Berrios OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-158)
The Detroit Tigers are one of the worst teams in the league, so is this strikeout prop a lock tonight?
It's no secret that the Tigers are a bad team. We've been targeting against them all season long, so no stopping tonight. They come in with a 26.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is dead last in the league, and have shown their swing-and-miss ways over the past two games while playing the Houston Astros (though they had to face Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander).
Tonight, it's Jose Berrios going against them, and while he isn't on the same level as Cole and Verlander, he does come in with a 25.6% strikeout rate since the All-Star break.
Everything lines up for Berrios to continue striking out hitters, but there is a decent amount of juice on this prop. Ride with the OVER tonight. It's the Tigers after all.
Christian Yelich To Hit a Home Run (+150)
A great home run hitter versus a young pitcher -- what's not to like about that?
That hitter is Christian Yelich, who comes in as the fourth-most likely hitter to go deep tonight, according to our projections. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone since he is carrying a .393 ISO, 52.1% hard-hit rate, and a whopping 34.5% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus righty pitchers this season. He's going for another NL MVP, so you should be expecting those type of numbers from him.
Yelich is up against Merrill Kelly, who is allowing 1.13 home runs per nine innings to lefty hitters this season thanks to a 45.9% hard-hit rate. This is a solid hitter's park in Milwaukee, and Yelich will do what he does best.