5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 8/21/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets ($3,100)
Amed Rosario continued his hot stretch last night with a two-hit game, and as he continues to hit at the top of the order, he’ll continue to be a value, especially on nights like tonight where the New York Mets have a great matchup.
The Mets are facing Adam Plutko, who has been one of the luckiest pitchers in all of baseball. Over his last 49 ⅔ innings, Plutko has allowed as many home runs and walks (17) as he has strikeouts. His season-long 4.67 ERA isn’t great, but when compared to his 6.09 FIP, it looks extremely lucky. Plutko’s success is reliant on luck, and with a hot Mets lineup facing off against him, I believe his luck runs out starting tonight.
J.D. Davis, OF, New York Mets ($2,900)
In his last 95 plate appearances, Davis has a .398/.453/.699 slash line and has been a great hitter all season when he’s gotten consistent playing time. His matchup tonight is a good one against the aforementioned Indians starter Adam Plutko, and at this price, Davis remains a mainstay in my lineups.
Corey Dickerson, OF, Philadelphia Phillies ($3,200)
Against right-handed pitching, Corey Dickerson is absolutely dominant. On the season, Dickerson is slashing .328/.373/.613 with six of his seven home runs coming in 150 plate appearances versus righties.
Tonight, he’ll face off against Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, who has really struggled this season. His 5.49 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 25 home runs surrendered in 139 ⅓ innings make me feel comfortable with Dickerson tonight at his price.
Adam Duvall, OF, Atlanta Braves ($2,900)
Adam Duvall has fallen into the short side of a platoon for the Atlanta Braves, in which he primarily only starts against lefties, but with Duvall’s great numbers against left-handed pitching that makes sense. He’s always been better against lefties than righties, but this season that’s been especially true. His 1.259 OPS and three home runs in 22 plate appearances against lefties in his short stint in the majors this season has me wanting him in my lineups whenever the Braves face a left-handed pitcher.
Tonight, the Braves face off against Caleb Smith. Smith has been very good this year but has struggled a bit recently. Over his past 11 starts, Smith has a 4.76 ERA, which isn’t bad, but home runs have been his biggest issue, as he’s surrendered 14 in his last 58 ⅔ innings.
With Duvall’s success against lefties and Smith’s recent struggles with the long ball, I really like Duvall at his price tonight.
Mike Montgomery, SP, Kansas City Royals ($7,500)
Since adjusting his pitch mix and using his cutter and off-speed pitches more primarily, Mike Montgomery has turned himself into a very interesting pitcher.
It’s fair to be skeptical considering the track record Montgomery has of being largely mediocre, but in his last three starts, Montgomery has thrown 18 innings with a 1.00 ERA, 22:3 strikeout to walk ratio, and most impressively, a 15% swinging-strike rate.
His matchup tonight is great, facing off against the Baltimore Orioles. Montgomery's price is still factoring in his early season struggles, and given his recent dominance, I love him as a contrarian pitcher on a night full of aces.
James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.