4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/16/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Charlie Morton OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-128)
This is one of the best pitching slates we've had all season, and that means one thing -- plenty of strikeouts tonight.
Charlie Morton comes in as one of the best pitchers this season, and now he is up against one of the worst teams in the league, the Detroit Tigers. This should make Morton one of the most popular targets tonight from several different angles, one of which is his strikeout prop. The prop is sitting at 8.5 tonight, and there is a bit of a juice on the over, but that is looking like the right bet given this matchup.
Morton comes in with a 30.5% strikeout rate this season, which is the third-best of any pitcher on the slate and puts him in a spot to succeed tonight. The Tigers come in with a 26.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the entire league. Over his last eight starts, Morton has posted nine or more strikeouts five times, a level only Justin Verlander can compete with on this slate.
Patrick Corbin OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-152)
There is a bit of juice on Patrick Corbin's strikeout prop tonight, but the combination of his consistency and the matchup are almost too good to pass up.
We see Corbin come in with a 28.6% strikeout rate this season, and he comes in with seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last 10 games, showing why the Washington Nationals went out and signed him over the winter. The 6.5 prop seems a bit low given how consistent he has been in this last stretch of outings, which is why we see the juice on that side.
The matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers is better than some might realize, considering they have a bit of power in their lineup. With that power, they also bring some empty trips at the plate and have a 23.3% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Corbin's 13.7% swinging-strike rate should help him induce some easy swings and misses for strikeouts.
J.D. Martinez To Hit a Home Run (+240)
When J.D. Martinez gets going, he is a hitter who can go deep every night. Should we look at his home run prop tonight?
Over his last eight games, Martinez has four home runs and could be in the ideal spot to continue that tonight, as he is going up against Aaron Brooks. The Boston Red Sox have an implied team total set at 7.03 implied team total, which is the second-highest on the slate, so you can get the idea that Brooks isn't a good pitcher.
Martinez comes in with a modest .187 ISO versus righty pitchers but makes up for that with a 45.9% hard-hit rate and a 36.2% fly-ball rate. Brooks is allowing 2.19 home runs per nine innings to righties and even if the home run doesn't come off of Brooks, we all know how historically bad the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen has been, putting Martinez in an equally good spot.
Ryan McMahon To Hit a Home Run (+340)
Coors Field is in play tonight, so why don't we look at the best hitter's park for some home runs?
It shouldn't come as a surprise that you want to look towards the Mile High City for some home run props, and Ryan McMahon offers some of the best odds tonight. A +340 prop has him as the fourth-best on the Colorado Rockies, with a clear path to hitting a home run. He has a .177 ISO overall on the season versus right-handed pitchers, but that jumps up to .242 while at home this season. Clearly, the park factor is benefiting him this season, as 10 of his 14 home runs have come there.
From a consistency standpoint that isn't great, but hey, he's at home, so let's attack it while we can. He is up against Sandy Alcantara, who is allowing 1.31 home runs per nine innings to lefty hitters, along with a 38.0% fly-ball rate, which is dangerous at Coors Field.