5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 8/13/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Dustin May, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers ($5,800)
All lineups tonight have to start with Dustin May. May was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball before he was called up, and then since being called up has been pretty good with a 3.18 ERA/2.87 FIP with a 10:0 K:BB ratio in 11 ⅔ innings. May was scheduled to pitch tomorrow night, but was moved to tonight to give Clayton Kershaw some extra rest. May is still pitching on five days rest, so there should be no worry of a reduced pitch count.
May faces off against the Miami Marlins tonight. The Marlins on the season rank last in all of baseball in both WoBA and WRC+ as a team. There’s no reason May should be one of the cheapest starters on the entire slate, and will take advantage of an anemic Marlins offense.
JD Davis, OF, New York Mets ($3,100)
The daily section in this article for J.D. Davis is getting ridiculous, but he just keeps hitting and Fanduel is just keeping him as a value. It’s now 32 games of a 1.127 OPS for Davis with six home runs and an 11:22 walk to strikeout ratio (BB:K) in that span. He’s consistently hitting in the middle of the lineup for the Mets since Robinson Cano's hamstring injury, and needs to remain in Fanduel lineups.
His matchup tonight is left-handed pitcher Max Fried. Fried has been solid this season, but for as good as Davis has been against righties (.879 OPS), he’s been even better against lefties with a .920 OPS and a .225 Isolated power (SLUG% - Batting average).
Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,700)
Jesus Aguilar's 2019 as a whole has been pretty disappointing, but even before he was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays, Aguilar had shown signs of turning around. In his last 28 games, Aguilar is slashing .342/.388/.553 with four home runs and just a 15% strikeout rate. It’s a different profile than the Aguilar we saw a season ago that was hitting for tons of power, but he’s been very good lately.
He’ll face left-handed pitcher Eric Lauer tonight for the Padres, Aguilar has been playing every day against lefties since joining the Rays, and at just $2,700 represents a good value for a middle of the order hitter in the Rays lineup.
Ryan Braun ($3,200) and Lorenzo Cain ($3,000), OFs, Milwaukee Brewers
Ryan Braun has also been hitting better lately. After a mediocre start to his season, Braun is slashing .319/.371/.566 over his last 39 games. He’s not walking as much as he used too, but is still providing a high quality of contact and some power. Similarly to Cain, Braun has also shown more power against lefties, with seven of his 16 home runs on the season coming against left-handed pitching in just 140 plate appearances, compared to the nine he has against righties in 252 plate appearances.
Despite his struggles for the season as a whole, Lorenzo Cain has been a mainstay at the top of the Brewers lineup. He’s looked like a better version of himself in his last 26 games, as he has a .272 average with a .812 OPS and a 12:16 BB:K ratio in that span. He’s also been better against lefties than righties this season, with a .729 OPS and five home runs against lefties, compared to a .661 OPS and three home runs against right-handed pitchers, with 210 more plate appearances coming against righties.
The main reason for this mini-stack is the opposing pitcher. Martin Perez had a surprisingly good start to the season, but has come crashing back down to earth lately. Over his last 12 starts, Perez has a 6.47 ERA. He’s given up 13 home runs in that span and his strikeout rate has fallen to 7.03 per nine innings in that span.
James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.