4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/12/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Eduardo Rodriguez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-118)
Eduardo Rodriguez is seeing his strikeout rate slip in recent starts. Does that mean we need to take the UNDER tonight?
The short answer is yes -- take the under on his 5.5 strikeout prop tonight. The long answer is as follows. Rodriguez has a 23.5% strikeout rate for the season, but that has dipped to 21.7% since the All-Star break, along with his walk rate going from 8.9% to a whopping 13.4% in that time.
That is a very dangerous mix to hold, especially when he is up against the Cleveland Indians, who are on fire right now and come in with a 5.19 implied team total. We know the Indians can score runs in a hurry with the power in their lineup, but you might not know that they have a 20.8% strikeout rate versus lefty pitchers, which is the seventh-lowest in the league. There is a legitimate chance Rodriguez doesn't last deep into the game versus this offense, and given the matchup, he simply won't be able to rack up the strikeouts unless he racks up innings.
Joey Lucchesi OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-134)
A modest 5.5 strikeout prop seems very doable tonight for a surging Joey Lucchesi.
Over his last 17 innings pitched, Lucchesi has piled up 20 strikeouts in what could be one of his best stretches this season. He has a chance to extend that tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa might be a team bound for the playoffs, but they have had significant struggles versus lefty pitchers this season.
Tampa Bay is carrying a 26.2% strikeout rate in this split, which is the fourth-worst in the league, along with a team ISO coming in at .167, which is 21st. As a team, the Rays don't really pose a threat to Lucchesi, who, as mentioned, is on a roll right now. We have Lucchesi projected for 5.45 strikeouts tonight, which is 0.05 lower than his strikeout prop, but I still like the over. His is in form right now and facing a free-swinging Tampa team, one that shouldn't slow him down.
Erick Fedde OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-112)
A 3.5 strikeout prop is super low. This has to be a lock for the over -- right?
There is no doubt that a 3.5 strikeout prop is super low, and there are some pitchers who can rack that up in two innings. But that isn't the case for Erick Fedde, who is carrying a 12.6% strikeout rate this season, the second-lowest on the slate. This is Fedde's third stint at the Major League level since 2017, and he showed a bit of promise in those smaller sample sizes, so take it with a grain of salt. In 2017, he had a 19.7% strikeout rate and he had a 21.2% strikeout rate in 2018 -- which isn't great in the grand scheme of things but is significantly better than his 12.6% strikeout rate this season.
Again, a bit of promise -- comparatively -- in prior years can hopefully be brought back tonight against the Cincinnati Reds, who are carrying a 23.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is the ninth-worst in the league. With very little juice on this prop, Fedde is in a good spot to bump up that strikeout rate to where it was in prior seasons.
Ketel Marte To Hit a Home Run (+300)
The Diamondbacks have an implied run total set at 6.92, and we should expect some of that to come via the long ball. We already know that Coors Field is the best hitter's park in the league, but we should also see a bit of wind blowing out toward center tonight, making it even better.
The All-Star Ketel Marte has a home run prop sitting at +300 and comes in with plenty of power to get the job done. He is holding a .222 ISO, 43.8% hard-hit rate, and 32.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers, and we see all of those numbers except the fly-ball rate jump when he is away from home this season.
The matchup is elite versus Peter Lambert, who has a 21.4% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season versus lefty hitters, along with a truly terrible hard-hit rate at 48.8%. Marte has more than enough power to go yard versus a young pitcher who can't control lefty hitters.