5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 8/12/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Yonder Alonso, 1B, Colorado Rockies ($3,000)
After an awful start to the season, Yonder Alonso was released by the Chicago White Sox and signed by the Colorado Rockies. Since getting signed, he’s been really good for Colorado. In 36 plate appearances, Alonso has hit three home runs, has a 7:7 walk to strikeout ratio (BB:K) and has posted a 1.231 OPS. Alonso has also seen his hard-hit rate spike from 32.1% with the White Sox to 42.5% with the Rockies.
He faces off against Arizona Diamondbacks right-handed pitcher Merrill Kelly tonight. Kelly’s really struggled lately, posting a 5.84 ERA over his last 49 ⅓ innings. His biggest issue has been that he’s allowed 11 home runs in that span. A pitcher struggling with home run suppression going in to Coors field could make for an ugly line for Kelly, and Alonso has a chance to take advantage of it if he’s in the lineup.
Randal Grichuk, OF, Toronto Blue Jays ($3,000)
Randal Grichuk on the season hasn’t been great, but he’s someone who will generally have stretches where he struggles for a while, and then makes it all up by having extreme hot stretches. He’s in the midst of one of those hot stretches now, as in his last 55 plate appearances, Grichuk has four home runs, a 50% hard hit rate, and a .913 OPS.
Tonight, he’ll face Texas Rangers starter Ariel Jurado. Jurado is another pitcher who has struggled recently. Jurado’s 6.14 ERA over his last 51 ⅓ innings isn’t great, but what’s worse is his 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
With Jurado’s recent struggles, and Grichuk’s recent hot streak, Grichuk at just $3,000 dollars is a pretty solid value tonight.
Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds ($3,000)
Jesse Winker against a right-handed pitcher on most nights is a value, as his .873 OPS and 15 home runs against righties shows, but that’s especially true tonight as he gets a great matchup against Washington Nationals starter Erick Fedde.
Fedde has been bad in 2019. His 4.20 ERA doesn’t show that, but everything else in his profile says he’s been extremely lucky. In 60 innings on the season, Fedde has a 32:25 K:BB, which is the worst K:BB ratio in all of baseball for anybody who has thrown 60 or more innings on the season. Fedde has also allowed just a .278 batting average on balls in play, where as the league average is .300, with that normally being higher for ground-ball reliant pitchers such as Fedde.
Fedde isn't as close to as good as his numbers have been, so I love a Cincinnati Reds stack tonight with Winker at the front of it at a reasonable $3,000 price.
Josh Naylor, OF, San Diego Padres ($2,600)
In a small sample since Franmil Reyes was traded, Josh Naylor was called back up from Triple-A and has been really good since seeing more playing time. Three home runs, a 4:4 BB:K ratio, and a 1.099 OPS in the last 10 games will help Naylor see more consistent at-bats.
Naylor has always been a bat-first prospect and has huge raw power, and more regular playing time could be a key for him to start unlocking his power potential.
Michael Brosseau, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,500)
By far my favorite play of the day, Michael Brosseau gets a great matchup with a platoon advantage at an insanely low price.
The Tampa Bay Rays have used Brosseau primarily against left-handed pitching, and in 53 plate appearances, Brosseau has a .333/.358/.549 slash line with three of his five home runs on the season. He consistently makes good contact at the plate with a 44.6% hard contact rate.
Brosseau faces off against San Diego Padres left-handed pitcher Joey Lucchesi tonight. While that’s not a great matchup, it still represents a matchup Brosseau can take advantage of. If Brosseau is going to be this cheap against left-handed pitching, he will have a frequent place in this values article.
James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.