DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 8/12/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
Zack Greinke ($10,600 on DraftKings): First I just want to note that there could be a weather issue here so keep an eye on that. Zack Greinke is definitely the best pitcher on the slate by a country mile as well as having one of the best possible matchups. He doesn't strike many hitters out as he is sporting just a 23.3 percent strikeout rate, but his 4.00 SIERA is solid and his 3.9 percent walk-rate is elite. The Chicago White Sox strikeout at a 26.6 percent clip against right-handed pitchers — the most in the Majors. In addition, their .292 wOBA ranks way down at 28th. Needless to say, this is a premium matchup for Greinke to reach what little strikeout upside he has.
Joey Lucchesi ($10,000): We have another solid real-life pitcher that doesn't bring too much strikeout upside to the table. Joey Lucchesi has a 23.4 percent strikeout rate this season with a modest 4.35 SIERA. In addition, he has relied on a good-not-great 45.9 percent groundball rate and limited line-drives to just a 17.4 percent rate. The Tampa Bay Rays haven't had much success against left-handed pitching this season and should help Lucchesi reach what would be close to his strikeout ceiling as they have a 26.2 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching — tied for the third-most in the Majors.
Brock Stewart ($4,000): As you can tell, the pitching on this slate is brutal. So, when it comes to finding value, you may as well go all the way down to Toronto Blue Jays' Brock Stewart. He doesn't have anything too special going for him as he has just an 18.5 percent strikeout rate for his career. However, the Texas Rangers have a 25.8 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching which obviously swings in Stewart's favour. It's not an easy matchup by any means as their .321 wOBA against righties is the 13th-best in all of baseball.
Hitters to Target
Trevor Story ($5,600): When you allow a ton of hard-hit balls and are heading to Coors Field, you're going to have a bad time. That is the case for Arizona Diamondbacks' Merrill Kelly this evening. He's struggled giving up a brutal 42.4 percent hard-hit rate along with a 36.8 percent fly-ball rate which has resulted in a 14.7 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. He also has a lowly 18.7 percent strikeout rate which is not at all intimidating. Trevor Story has smashed right-handed pitching with a .369 wOBA and .288 ISO which puts him in a great position tonight.
Ketel Marte ($5,500): Ketel Marte started off the season on an incredible power surge, but those numbers have dried up. However, he still has been solid against right-handed pitching as his .387 wOBA and .222 ISO would indicate and tonight he is in the best hitters park in the Majors in Coors Field. He'll face Peter Lambert — a pitcher that has struggled in his 55 innings this season. He's allowed a 38.5 percent hard-hit rate and given up a 2.13 HR/9 which is going to put him in a disastrous situation tonight.
Gary Sanchez ($4,500): He's had two games since coming off the DL, and heads home to take on the Baltimore Orioles. They are expected to roll with Ty Blach — a pitcher that has been horrible in the Minors this season. He's got a brutal 5.43 xFIP while sporting an even uglier 15.7 percent strikeout rate and has a very difficult matchup this evening against the New York Yankees. Gary Sanchez has just a .333 wOBA against right-handed pitching but is sporting a nice .269 ISO which shows plenty of power on his end.
Jesse Winker ($3,800): Erick Fedde will be stepping on the mound for the Washington Nationals this evening and he has been absolutely terrible this season. He's got a slate-worst and downright awful 5.64 SIERA along with a 12.6 strikeout rate and 9.8 percent walk-rate — both of which are also terrible. Jesse Winker has been solid against right-handed pitching and put together a .365 wOBA and .229 ISO. While the numbers aren't too flashy, the matchup makes this very intriguing.
Justin Upton ($3,600): The difference between Justin Upton against right-handed pitching (.371 wOBA and .258 ISO) and his numbers against left-handed pitching (.131 wOBA and .051 ISO) are staggering. While it is not always a lock that righties are better against lefties, this difference is incredible. Luckily, Upton is facing a right-hander tonight as he'll take on Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Mitch Keller — a right-handed pitcher with a 3.90 xFIP and very good 28.2 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A this season.
Victor Robles ($3,300): Anthony DeSclafani has the best strikeout rate on the slate among regular starters which is surprising and also shows you what the state of pitching is like here. However, he's giving up a 41.0 percent hard-hit rate and 40.6 percent fly-ball rate which has resulted in a 16.8 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. Now, this would normally be an incredible stat line to target, but tonight Victor Robles doesn't really bring the power we want to see as he has just a .302 wOBA and .182 ISO against righties. There is still plenty of upside in Robles' game that the price is well worth it.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.