5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 8/10/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds ($2,900)
Most nights when Jesse Winker is facing a right-handed pitcher, he’s in my lineups. Winker owns a season-long slash line of .283/.363/.513 with 15 home runs against righties, compared to a .163/.280/.163 slash line with zero home runs against lefties. Those splits keep his salary low, and it makes him a great value when the Cincinnati Reds see a righty, especially when Winker is atop the lineup.
Winker also has a very low 13.7% soft-contact rate and an above-average 42.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. His matchup against Kyle Hendricks isn’t a great one, but Winker’s numbers on the season against right-handed pitching put him in play tonight.
C.J. Cron, 1B, Minnesota Twins ($3,200)
Marwin Gonzalez, 1B, Minnesota Twins ($2,500)
Luis Arraez, 2B, Minnesota Twins ($2,500)
Normally, I don't put multiple players from the same team in this piece, but a Minnesota Twins stack today is extremely obvious. On the mound for the Indians is Adam Plutko. Plutko’s surface numbers on the season -- 4.55 ERA and 1.15 WHIP -- don’t necessarily tell the story of somebody who needs to be stacked against.
However, Plutko has an abysmal rate of 5.5 strikeouts per nine (K/9) and has allowed 15 home runs in just 59 1/3 innings. Plutko has given up a .244 BABIP, which has been his saving grace, with the league average for BABIP around .300. Some pitchers may have lower BABIP marks based on their ability to draw soft contact and ground-balls, but Plutko doesn’t do either of those things well. His 18.5% soft-contact rate allowed is below average, and while a good ground-ball pitcher will maintain a ground-ball rate around 50%, Plutko’s is just 30.9%.
Plutko’s 8.8% swinging-strike rate is one of the worst in baseball for a starting pitcher, and that all adds up to Plutko’s FIP ending up at 5.84 on the season. C.J. Cron, Marwin Gonzalez, and Luis Arraez should all be in the lineup tonight after Nelson Cruz was put on the IL, and they all represent major values in a great matchup.
J.D. Davis, Outfielder, New York Mets ($2,700)
J.D. Davis continues to rake, and FanDuel continues to leave him at a great price, so I’ll continue to write about him. In his last 30 games, it’s now a .400/.469/.671 slash line with five home runs and eight doubles. He’s been playing every day since Robinson Cano suffered a hamstring injury, and with the way Davis is hitting, he’s not going to leave the lineup very often.
The matchup tonight is tough, facing off against Washington Nationals starter Patrick Corbin. However, Davis has fared just as well against lefties as he has against righties, with an .897 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching. Davis is a guy we have to consider on a nightly basis until he starts cooling off, which he has shown no signs of doing.
James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.