4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/8/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Chris Sale OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (+100)
The Boston Red Sox are sliding right now, and they will need their best pitcher to put up a strong performance tonight.
That pitcher is Chris Sale, who is coming off what could be his two worst starts of the season, allowing a combined 14 earned runs in 9 innings versus the New York Yankees. Even while getting shelled, he still was able to post 11 strikeouts, though, showing the consistency he is known for.
Regardless of a few bad starts, Sale is still carrying a 34.6% strikeout rate this season, which is the second-best of any pitcher in action tonight. He is posting 13.09 strikeouts per nine innings and has tallied over 10 strikeouts seven times in his last 12 starts.
He is up against the Los Angeles Angels, who have a 17.3% strikeout rate overall this season versus left-handed pitchers, but that rate has jumped up to 23.5% since the start of July. With even money odds on this prop, simply rely on Sale and what he does best.
Mike Clevinger OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-128)
If you are looking for a prop bet that carries a good likelihood of happening, then Mike Clevinger is your guy tonight.
After a few stints on the IL this season, Clevinger has seemingly found his form and is now carrying a 36.9% strikeout rate, which is the highest among any pitcher in action tonight. Yes, he has fewer innings pitched compared to Chris Sale or Aaron Nola, but Clevinger showed last season that he is a legit strikeout threat. He comes in with seven or more strikeouts in four straight starts and tonight we have him projected to rack up 6.99 strikeouts.
Clevinger is up against the Minnesota Twins, who are scoring runs seemingly at will this year, making this a bit of a tougher matchup. Tonight, they have a 4.53 implied team total, and while this won't be a cakewalk for Clevinger, with only a bit of juice on the over, it makes a strong prop to consider.
Matt Boyd OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+120)
It looks like the overs are all the rage tonight for pitchers, so there's no slowing down with Matt Boyd.
Boyd has truly posted one of the best seasons he's ever had, and there are no signs of him declining in the second half. Boyd comes in with eight or more strikeouts in seven straight starts, where four of those starts were over 10 strikeouts. He is an absolute machine on the mound this year, posting a 32.6% strikeout rate, third-best on the slate tonight.
He is up against the Kansas City Royals, facing them for the fourth time this season, and if it's anything like the first three, we are in for some strikeouts. Boyd has 18 innings pitched and 26 strikeouts against them, which shouldn't come as any surprise since the Royals have a 24.0% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers.
Freddie Freeman To Hit a Home Run (+280)
They call him Free Money Freddie since he prints money for you when he is hot.
That is, of course, Freddie Freeman, who has home runs in three straight games and will look to extend that streak tonight.
The +280 odds on his home run prop are amazing, and frankly, too generous given his recent form and the matchup tonight. He is facing off against Elieser Hernandez, who is allowing 3.52 home runs per nine innings to lefty hitters this season, which comes from a horrible 45.1% fly-ball ratio and a 48.1% hard-hit rate. Yikes. Those are not the type of numbers you want to see when Freeman is carrying a .280 ISO, 52.1% hard-hit rate and a 25.0% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus right-handed pitchers.
Everything sets up for Freeman to continue his home run streak tonight, and our projections have him as the fifth-most likely hitter to hit one over the fence tonight.