5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 8/7/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slates.
JD Davis, OF, New York Mets (3,000)
First taking a look at the very early only slate at 12:10pm ET, FanDuel is just forcing me to continue writing about J.D. Davis everyday until they raise his price as they should. He continued his hot stretch with two hits, one double and a walk. After that performance, he now has a 1.114 OPS over his last 28 games with a 11:17 BB:K ratio and four home runs. Davis’s path to everyday playing time has been made clear thanks to the Robinson Cano injury, so until FanDuel ups his salary, Davis has to be in your lineups.
After being bumped for Hector Noesi's spot start, Jordan Yamamoto is scheduled to take the mound today. After a great start to his major league career, Yamamoto has really struggled in his last four starts, allowing an 8.05 ERA with an awful 7% swinging-strike rate. There should be more regression coming, as Yamamoto has surrendered a 51% hard-hit rate and is allowing a ton of fly balls (41.2%). Despite that, his homer-per-fly-ball rate sits at just 8.2%.
Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers ($3,000)
After last night’s game against the Indians was postponed, I like Elvis Andrus again on today's very early only slate. Despite the fact that Andrus has been pretty bad this season with his bat, I still like him for one big reason -- the opposing starting pitcher is Zach Plesac.
On the surface, Plesac’s 3.41 ERA and 1.15 WHIP look entirely fine, but that has been thanks to extremely good fortune. His 5.23 FIP and 6.4 K/9 point to a below average starting pitcher. The Texas Rangers should rock Plesac tonight, and Andrus, hitting third as he normally does, should be a big beneficiary of Plesac’s impending regression.
Josh Reddick, OF, Houston Astros ($2,500)
Moving over to the early only slate at 2:10pm ET, the Houston Astros face off against Peter Lambert today and have the highest implied total of the day at 5.40 runs. Most of the Astros are priced up because of that matchup, but Josh Reddick sits at just $2,500 dollars, and I like him as a cheap play today.
Reddick’s surface numbers don’t look great, but he’s hitting the ball harder than he ever has with a career-high 33.7% hard-contact rate and is making less bad contact with a career-low 15.4% soft-contact rate. He’s also posted a very good line-drive rate at 24.0%, and despite all of those numbers pointing to Reddick making better contact, he has just a 7.8% HR/FB rate. With Reddick due for some positive regression, and getting a great matchup today, he’s a great value at just $2,500.
Trent Grisham, OF, Milwaukee Brewers ($2,500)
Finally, let's check in on tonight's main slate. Trent Grisham had one of the best minor league seasons in all of baseball before his call-up, posting a 1.010 OPS and 26 home runs in 97 games. In the five games since he’s been called up, he’s performed fairly well, with a .933 OPS and a home run in his first 18 plate appearances. The power is definitely there to help you on any given day.
The Milwaukee Brewers have used Grisham at the top of their lineup the last two times they’ve faced off against right-handed pitchers, and will likely do so again today with Lorenzo Cain likely to not play due to fouling a ball of of his knee yesterday. With a solid matchup against Trevor Williams for the Brewers today and Grisham at the top of the lineup, he makes a lot of sense as a cheap outfield play.
John Means, SP, Baltimore Orioles ($6,500)
This is definitely more of a tournament play than a 50/50 or head-to-head type of play, but I think there’s some sneaky upside to John Means at his current price. Means pitched very well in his appearances against the New York Yankees this season, with nine strikeouts in 5 ⅔ innings.
This is more about the matchup, as the Yankees lineup lost Gleyber Torres to a core injury last night, and he is unlikely to play today. That means that after DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Judge at the top of the lineup, Means will likely face off against Didi Gregorius -- who has a .666 career OPS against lefties -- followed by Brett Gardner, Cameron Maybin, Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford, Austin Romine, and Breyvic Valera. The two names that could scare you in that group are Tauchman and Ford, but with both being lefties, and Means holding left-handed hitters to a .522 OPS with a 28.5% strikeout rate, I think he's a steal as one of the cheapest starting pitchers of the day.
James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.