4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/7/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
James Paxton OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-134)
Despite going through a bit of a rough stretch in terms of runs allowed, James Paxton still has the strikeouts working for him, but is his prop a lock tonight?
Over his last five starts, Paxton has posted five strikeouts or more in all of them, and that shouldn't come as any surprise since he has a 29.5% strikeout rate, which is the highest among any pitcher in action tonight. He has a chance to continue that streak versus the lowly Baltimore Orioles, who comes in with a whopping 26.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers this season, which is the second-worst in the league.
There is a bit of juice on this strikeout prop, but with the Yankees using an opener yesterday, they should be looking to get some length out of Paxton tonight. He should be able to flex his 11.57 strikeouts per nine innings on the Orioles, as he did in his only start against them this season, posting nine whiffs in 5.1 innings pitched.
This shouldn't be a surprise for anyone, as the Orioles have been one of the worst teams over the past few seasons and picking on them from a betting perspective has been popular.
Eduardo Rodriguez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-158)
Despite the pitching staff being a bit lackluster for Boston this season, Rodriguez is holding his own and has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts, while posting five or more strikeouts five times in that span. Rodriguez is legit good this season and is holding a 24.3% strikeout rate, along with a 4.38 SIERA. He is facing off against the Kansas City Royals, who have a 24.4% strikeout rate this season versus lefty pitchers, which is in the bottom-10 of the league.
All of this should line up for the over on this strikeout prop hitting tonight -- just know that it comes with a decent amount of juice. You are paying a premium price, but our projections have Rodriguez going for 6.82 strikeouts tonight, firmly hitting the over.
Joey Lucchesi UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-118)
A stellar performance last night is being followed up by Joey Lucchesi, who might not be able to match what he saw his teammate do. Lucchesi only has a 22.8% strikeout rate this season and has posted over six strikeouts just one time in his last 11 starts. Lucchesi is mainly a ground-ball pitcher, with a 47.6% rate this season, and he doesn't have anything overpowering on the mound, with an average fastball velocity sitting at just 91.2 mph.
He is an average pitcher all-around and has nothing to imply he can hit the upper limit on his strikeout potential. This is shown through our projections only having him going for 4.43 strikeouts tonight, which is two full strikeouts lower than his prop.
Aaron Judge To Hit a Home Run (+190)
The New York Yankees and hitting home runs at Camden Yards are a match made in heaven, which won't be stopping tonight.
A record-setting season for the Yankees at Camden Yards has seen them hit 38 home runs in nine games played there. It's a home away from home feeling for them, and that should continue tonight versus John Means, who is making his first start off the IL and staring down a lineup full of home runs. Near the top of the lineup, we have Aaron Judge, who has his home run prop sitting at +190, making him the "most likely" to go deep tonight, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Judge was able to blast a home run on Sunday night, which was his first home run since July 19th. He's gone through a bit of a power drought for him but still holds a .263 ISO, 66.7% hard-hit rate, and a 40.0% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus lefty pitchers this season. Judge comes in as the fourth-most likely hitter to go deep tonight in our projections.