4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/6/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jose Berrios OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Atlanta comes in with a 22.5% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, which is 17th in the league. We see Berrios coming in with a 22.8% strikeout rate this season, which is about three percentage points lower than his rate last season. But, even with that said, we have Berrios projected for 6.70 strikeouts tonight, one full strikeout higher than his prop. In all honesty, the prop number is the best thing going in this situation.
It's a rather low prop for a pitcher who is posting 10.58 strikeouts per nine innings since the All-Star break. The matchup isn't amazing for him, but this prop is low, has very little juice on the over, and he has seen his strikeout rate surge as of late.
Eugenio Suarez To Hit a Home Run (+220)
The Cincinnati Reds come in with a very healthy 5.38 implied team total tonight, which is the sixth-highest on the slate. But how many home runs will they hit?
Whenever the Reds are at home, they have the advantage of a great park factor for their hitters, which often leads to plenty of home runs, something we want to target tonight. This is true for Eugenio Suarez, who has absolutely monster numbers while at home this season versus lefty pitchers. Suarez is holding a .308 ISO, 1.110 OPS, 53.9% hard-hit rate, and a 46.2% fly-ball rate in the split. Those are flat-out insane, All-Star-worthy numbers. But they come in only a specific situation.
And he gets that situation today as he is facing off against Los Angeles Angels pitcher Jose Suarez. With only 41 innings pitched in his MLB career, Suarez -- the pitcher -- is allowing 2.88 home runs per nine innings with a fly-ball rate sitting at 40.7% and a 40.5% hard-hit rate versus righty hitters this season. He is a young pitcher, but he is getting absolutely blasted so far, and we want to target him tonight. Great odds on this prop for Suarez to send a ball to the moon tonight.
Eddie Rosario To Hit a Home Run (+270)
This shouldn't be breaking news to anyone who is following baseball this season -- the Minnesota Twins are pretty good at hitting home runs, and we should target them for props.
A 5.73 implied team total is nothing new for the Twins this season, and they will look to exceed that tonight versus Mike Foltynewicz, who his having a very tough year. Folty started the season on the IL, came back from his injury and simply wasn't the same pitcher he was in 2018, got sent down to Triple-A in June, and this will be his first start back in the Majors. In his smaller sample size this season, Folty is allowing a 40.9% hard-hit rate and a terrible 48.3% fly-ball rate to lefty hitters.
When we see numbers like those, we want to target a home run prop like Eddie Rosario has tonight, sitting at +270. Rosario has been in the middle of the lineup for the Twins all season, posting a 39.1% hard-hit rate, 45.2% fly-ball rate, and .246 ISO versus right-handed pitchers. Facing the Twins on the road is one of the toughest landing spots for Foltynewicz coming back up to the Majors, and he could have a rough outing in this one.
Jon Lester OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
It's not often we want to look toward Jon Lester for a strikeout prop, but the even money odds are simply amazing tonight.
A 5.5 strikeout prop for Lester isn't all that high, and he comes in with a 22.5% strikeout rate this season, which is 2.9 percentage points higher than his rate last season. That isn't a massive increase, but Lester is getting it done recently with six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 11 starts. The veteran is showing he has something left in the tank despite not having any pitch with an average velocity over 90 miles per hour.
Our projections have Lester going for 5.70 strikeouts tonight, having him barley hitting the OVER on this prop.