4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/2/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Mike Clevinger OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Clevinger comes in with a whopping 37.5% strikeout rate this season, which is the highest on the slate, but he also comes in with the smallest sample size. A few injuries have put Clevinger on and off the IL, but he has posted seven or more strikeouts in three straight starts and is looking like the pitcher we saw for most of last season. Our projections have him going for 7.18 strikeouts tonight, which has him hitting the OVER on his 6.5 prop tonight.
He is up against the Angels, who are carrying an 18.9% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, which is actually the second-lowest in the league. But, since the start of July, that rate has jumped up to 22% versus righty pitchers. A noticeable change for the Angels and a dominating Clevinger should see him hit the over on this prop tonight.
Lance Lynn OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-152)
There is a decent amount of juice on this strikeout prop, but the Detroit Tigers are one of the worst teams in the league this season.
Lance Lynn could be having his best season ever and is doing sow sporting a 27.2% strikeout rate, along with a 3.75 SIERA. Simply amazing numbers from the veteran who is in a spot to continue his success against the Tigers who have a 26.6% strikeout rate versus righty pitchers this season, which is dead last in the league. Lynn comes in with eight or more strikeouts four times over his last six starts, a level he should almost certainly be able to reach tonight.
Our projections only have Lynn going for 7.03 strikeouts, but the over still looks the likely outcome given how bad the Tigers lineup is. As mentioned above, there is a bit of juice on this prob, but given how consistent Lynn has been, he should be able to hit the over.
Eduardo Rodriguez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Eduardo Rodriguez is on the mound tonight and he has two starts against the Yankees this season. In the first start, he went 5.1 innings with five strikeouts and in his most recent start last week, he went 5.2 innings with five strikeouts. His strikeout prop is sitting at 5.5 tonight, putting him right on the edge of where he has been against them this season. The Yankees come in with a 5.30 implied run total tonight, making them one of the higher teams on the slate.
With the combination of their run-scoring potential, Rodriguez could get the hook early, which limits his ability to rack up the strikeouts, leading to the under being a smart bet tonight.
Charlie Blackmon To Hit a Home Run (+320)
It's the Colorado Rockies at home in Coors Field, we're gonna see some home runs, right?
The Rockies come in with an insane 7.72 implied run total tonight and are facing off against Shaun Anderson, who is in his first year in the Major Leagues. In this time, he has allowed 1.59 home runs per nine innings to lefties, from a 42.4$ hard-hit rate, and a 21.4% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. Those are some rough numbers to look at if you are a San Francisco Giants fan, but the kind of numbers you want to attack via a home run prop.
Charlie Blackmon crushes righty pitchers while at home this season, boasting a .443 ISO, 40.7% hard-hit rate, and a 30.0% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. Those are elite level-numbers and we want to embrace Blackmon at his +320 odds tonight.