4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/31/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jose Berrios OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+108)
This season versus right-handed pitchers, the Marlins clock in with a 25.3% strikeout rate -- which is the fifth-worst in the league -- making them a team to attack all season long. This is nothing new for the Marlins over the past few seasons, so we naturally want to look at them or ,rather, look at the pitcher going against them for strikeout props. That pitcher tonight is Jose Berrios, who comes in with a modest 21.8% strikeout this season, which is actually the lowest of his career since his rookie season in 2016. Hopefully, he is due for some positive regression and able to return to the 25% strikeout rate we saw last season.
Even with that said, Berrios has shown to reach the upper limit on his strikeouts when he faces a team who are undisciplined at the plate. He did so in his last start against the Chicago White Sox, who have the second-highest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, and was able to post eight strikeouts against them. Positive odds on this prop bring great value against a weak team.
Jacob deGrom OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-134)
deGrom is and has been one of the best pitchers in the league over the past few seasons and is continuing that trend this season with his 31.2% strikeout rate, which is the highest among any pitcher in action tonight. There is a bit of juice on this strikeout prop, but based on the form deGrom has been in, and how bad the White Sox are, it's looking like a lock tonight.
deGrom has nine or more strikeouts in five of his last seven starts, a trend which is almost certain to be extended tonight since the White Sox carry a 26.2% strikeout rate versus righty pitchers this season, which is the second-worst in the league. deGrom should be one of the most popular options from a DFS perspective tonight, along with having one of the best props you can find.
Lucas Giolito OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-134)
Giolito had a blazing hot first-half of the season and has cooled off a bit, but we see him with a rather low strikeout prop tonight, which he should be able to exceed. A 29.7% strikeout rate this year is amazing for the Chicago White Sox newly found ace, who is staring at a 5.5 strikeout prop. That is very modest for a pitcher who has posted six strikeouts or more in eight of his last 11 games. This is backed by our projections showing Giolito going for 6.36 strikeouts tonight, which would hit the OVER on his prop.
This is another prop with a bit of juice on it, but Giolito has shown throughout the season -- even in this recent rough patch -- he can still strike hitters out every time he takes the mound.
Nelson Cruz To Hit a Home Run (+290)
After a few days off is Nelson Cruz is ready to get back in the lineup and mash some home runs.
With the Minnesota Twins visiting a National League park, they lose the DH, which means a few days off for Cruz. He is likely itching to get back in the lineup since he had seven home runs in his last seven games prior to hitting the bench. When a hitter is this hot, it doesn't matter what park they are in or who they are facing, it seems they can go deep any night. After all, he is carrying a .281 ISO, whopping 51.7% hard-hit rate, and a 27.6% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus right-handed pitchers this season. Cruz has all the power you could possibly want from a hitter, which is why we have him projected as our fourth most likely hitter to go deep tonight.
Great odds on a hitter who was hitting all the home runs before a mere road trip slowed him down.