4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/30/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Noah Syndergaard OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+114)
Will he be traded? That is the question surrounding Noah Syndergaard recently, but he is in a great spot tonight and we should look at his strikeout prop tonight.
Thor is facing off against the Chicago White Sox, who have plenty of promising young talent, but who are still striking out too much. That makes them an easy target to attack in both DFS and from a player prop perspective.
The White Sox are holing a 26.0% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the entire league, putting Syndergaard in a great spot. He comes in with eight or more strikeouts in three straight starts and has a 23.8% strikeout rate overall on the season.
The odds on this strikeout prop are amazing since you get plus money to go after what Thor does best, against the White Sox and their biggest weakness.
David Price OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
One thing is certain, David Price loves pitching against his former team and he is dominating them this season.
Price has fours starts against the Tampa Bay Rays this season for a total of 23 innings pitched, racking up 35 strikeouts, which is good for 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings, according to Baseball-Reference. Of course, that is a small sample size, but Price's 28.0% strikeout rate this season is legit and you should be confident in that. You should also look towards the Rays having a 26.5% strikeout rate versus lefty-handed pitchers this season, which is the second-worst in the league. It might be a coincidence that Price has been dominating his former team this season, but if the Rays can't hit lefties, why stop targeting them?
Even money odds for Price's strikeout prop tonight should scream value
Daniel Vogelbach To Hit a Home Run (+240)
The Seattle Mariners are getting a massive positive park shift tonight, does that mean their power hitters are certain for a home run tonight?
Seattle has a 5.24 implied run total tonight, which is the fifth-highest on the slate and find themselves in one of the best hitter's parks in the league, Globe Life Park. The Mariners are facing off against Ariel Jurado, who isn't a good pitcher and specifically struggles with lefty hitters. Jurado is allowing a whopping 48.4% hard-hit rate and a 5.51 xFIP to lefty hitters this season, making him the ideal pitcher to target. One such hitter we want to use to attack Jurado is Dan Vogelbach, who his having a very impressive season and brings plenty of power.
Vogelbach is showing to be a true power hitter with an insane .307 ISO 46.2% hard-hit rate, and a 44.% fly-ball rate versus righty pitchers this season. He is a righty masher and yes, his 24.4% strikeout rate isn't great at all, but when you carry a 27.6% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus righty pitchers, you swing big and can miss big sometimes.
Edwin Encarnacion To Hit a Home Run (+185)
Edwin Encarnacion and the Yankees are facing off against Taylor Clarke, who is a young pitcher for the Arizona Diamondbacks and only has 51.2 innings pitched in the Major League, all coming this season. He is allowing 2.35 home runs per nine innings to righty hitters, which comes from a 40.5% hard-hit rate, and a 43.2% fly-ball ratio. Clarke is struggling in his first season as many would expect and now has to face down a very powerful Yankees lineup. Encarnacion has all the power you could want against a righty pitcher, with a .235 ISO and a 20.0% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season.
Our projections have E5 as the number one overall projected hitter to go deep tonight but comes in at modest home run odds (+185).