3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Players to Avoid on 7/29/19
Baseball is heating up, and there are plenty of DFS contests to choose from on FanDuel's main slate. While we have plenty of pieces geared towards guys you should target in your DFS contests, it's also important to avoid sub-optimal options who are overpriced and/or in tough spots.
Let's check out three players to consider fading on FanDuel's main slate for July 29.
Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals (SP)
at Atlanta Braves
FanDuel Price: $10,500
The NL East race has tightened up a bit, and the Washington Nationals have put some pressure on the Atlanta Braves, largely due to their impressive pitching staff. Patrick Corbin gets the ball tonight, and while he has enjoyed an impressive 2019, he's got his work cut out for him tonight.
The Braves have risen to the top of the division, but in a little different manner -- they have one of the best offenses in all of baseball. They are whiffing at only a 22.6% clip (19th), while ranking sixth in team wOBA (.334), and fifth in hard-hit rate (41.5%).
The Braves remain equally impressive against southpaws, ranking seventh in team wOBA (.334) and a strong 40.8% hard-hit rate. He remains a strong favorite (moneyline -160), but his 4.31 implied allow run total shows there's some risk here for the ace. Consider fading the hefty priced hurler.
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies (3B)
vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
FanDuel Price: $4,200
Returning back to the friendly confines of Denver, and throw in a 12 MPH wind blowing out, and Nolan Arenado should be locked and loaded tonight? That's a definitely maybe -- as the slugging third baseman has a challenging matchup on his hands.
While Arenado has his best OPS (.856) in three seasons against righties, it pales in comparison to the slugger's marks against lefties, where he has posted marks of .998, 1.198, and 1.313, respectively, over the last three seasons. Over the last three years, he has homered once every 11 at-bats against lefties; that mark rises to once every 41 at-bats against righties. While he is still good against same-sided arms, he's not as elite, and that's clear.
Now, factor in his opponent, righty Kenta Maeda, who dominates same-sided bats. For his career, he has limited them to a .254 wOBA and 31.6% strikeout rate. Take a pause from Arenado and spend your dollars elsewhere.
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers (OF)
at Colorado Rockies
FanDuel Price: $4,700
When a game sports an over/under total of 13.0 runs, you take notice immediately. That's the case in Denver tonight, and it's no secret why -- despite the great hitter's park that's available, Jon Gray has struggled historically in this venue. Over 293 2/3 career innings, he owns a 4.51 ERA and 1.10 home runs per nine (HR/9) innings pitched. Those aren't good marks.
Lost in some of those ugly numbers is how well Gray has limited left-handed batters like Cody Bellinger at home. Over 627 plate appearances, lefties own a meager .321 wOBA, 23.0% strikeout rate, and 27.9% fly-ball rate.
2019 is no aberration to those statistics, either -- over 116 lefties Gray has faced at Coors Field, he's limited them to an impressive .330 wOBA and 25.0% fly-ball rate.
Bellinger is a stud and has ripped righties for a 1.120 OPS in 2019. Just be prepared that Gray has also performed well in this split, and he may not return the type of value you are expecting for the second-most expensive hitter on the evening.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.