4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/29/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Patrick Corbin UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-128)
There is no question that Patrick Corbin is the best pitcher in action tonight, but does that mean his strikeout prop is a lock?
The Washington Nationals have fought their way back into the playoff picture and will face a tough Atlanta Braves team, who are just a few games ahead of them in the NL East. Corbin comes in with a 28.5% strikeout rate, which is the third-highest of any pitcher on the slate, but that doesn't mean his strikeout prop is the right bet tonight. The Braves come in with a 23.0% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers this season, which is 16th in the league, meaning they are right at league average. They aren't a team you need to avoid, but also not a team we want to pick on since they don't give up free outs at the dish.
Atlanta also comes in with one of the top three run-scoring offenses in the National League and can post runs in a hurry. This not only leaves Corbin in a somewhat unfavorable spot to not rack up the strikeouts but also to get knocked around and pulled early if he were to allow several runs. A team who doesn't strike out a ton and has plenty of dangerous hitters isn't the spot you want to target a strikeout prop. Our projections have Coring going for 6.84 strikeouts tonight, which has him hitting the under on his prop, which has very little juice.
Max Muncy To Hit a Home Run (+240)
Targeting hitters at Coors Field for a home run prop shouldn't be a surprise since it's the best hitter's park on the slate and the league overall. Max Muncy is a player to keep an eye tonight if you are looking for a home run prop to target, as he has great splits versus righty pitchers and that should be amplified tonight in the Mile High City. Muncy is carrying a .281 ISO, 27.5% home-run-to-fly-ball rate, and a 42.7% hard-hit rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. When he makes contact, it's hard-hit, and if it's in the air, it has a good chance to go over the fence.
That is shown by him sitting in the 88th percentile or higher for xwOBA and xSLG this season, according to Baseball Savant. All of that should line up nicely versus Jon Gray, who is allowing a 42.3% hard-hit rate versus lefties at home this season, but a rather low 10.5% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. The +240 odds on this prop are great considering the power Muncy brings in this matchup.
Sonny Gray OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-152)
If there is any pitcher who deserves a nomination for comeback player of the year, Sonny Gray might be the guy.
Gray comes in sporting a very impressive 28.7% strikeout rate this season, which is the second-highest on the slate, along with posting seven or more strikeouts in four straight starts. This 28.7% strikeout rate is the highest of his career and has a chance to continue that tonight versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, who he has dominated this season. In three starts against Pittsburgh this year, Gray has 15.2 innings pitched against them with a total of 14 strikeouts. Solid numbers from the veteran who is boasting 10.45 strikeouts per nine innings this season.
There is a decent amount of juice on the OVER tonight, but 5.5 strikeouts seems rather low for a pitcher who has shown success against this opponent and success overall this season.
Caleb Smith UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-128)
A 31.0% strikeout rate -- which is the highest on the slate -- is certainly very impressive, but we only have Smith projected for 5.99 strikeouts tonight. That is due in large part to his matchup versus the Arizona Diamondbacks, who come in with a 21.6% strikeout rate versus righty pitchers, which is the eighth lowest in the league. Arizona isn't great overall, only a 91 wRC+ vs righty pitchers this season, but they don't give up free outs at the plate. That might be a silver lining for them in the long run, but it's not conducive for Smith racking up the strikeouts tonight.
Smith could easily pick up the win, the quality start, maybe even a complete game with how he's been pitching this season, but massive strikeouts don't look to be likely tonight.