5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 7/26/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Dominic Smith, OF, New York Mets ($2,300)
With a .366 wOBA and .231 ISO across 193 plate appearances this season, Dominic Smith is going to be worth checking out any time he gets this cheap.
Sure, his production is down recently, but he's still flexing a .330 wOBA and .261 ISO since June 1. July has been a struggle for him so far, but that's also only a 52 plate appearance sample, not warranting such a steep drop in price.
His matchup tonight should also go a long way to helping him bounce back, as Pittsburgh Pirates righty Dario Agrazal has an ugly 6.19 SIERA across his first 28 major league innings after only managing a 4.46 xFIP in 55 career innings at the Triple-A level.
Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Mets ($2,700)
With Agrazal's struggles, it's no surprise to see the New York Mets flexing a strong 5.07-run implied total.
Robinson Cano is certainly on the decline at this stage of his career, and his season-long marks of a .297 wOBA and .160 ISO don't inspire a ton of confidence. He's still making some solid contact though, with a 39.0% hard-hit rate.
He also benefits in a big way from getting the platoon advantage against Agrazal, with his numbers jumping to a .321 wOBA, .207 ISO and 42.4% hard-hit rate if we just look at his 2019 splits against right-handed pitching.
Ji-Man Choi, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,400)
Ji-Man Choi owns a career .190 ISO at the major league level, and he posted a .242 ISO with a .367 wOBA in 2018.
His production is way down in 2019, with a .324 wOBA and .145 ISO, but he's still turned in a 36.1% hard-hit and 10.9% soft-hit rate -- not far off his career averages of 37.4% and 12.4%. Only 9.4% of his fly-balls are turning into home runs though, which is well below both last year's mark (14.6%) and his career-average (12.4%), so we can expect his power output to improve moving forward.
He's producing at a higher level against righties, with a .344 wOBA and .164 ISO, and that brings him to a career .345 wOBA and .207 ISO in the split.
He gets the platoon advantage tonight against Toronto Blue Jays righty Jacob Waguespack, who has only given us a 19-inning major league sample to draw from. We can't base many conclusions off those numbers, but the 4.96 xFIP he posted in 52 2/3 Triple-A innings this year is definitely a reason to be concerned.
Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,900)
Our models project Alex Verdugo as the top point-per-dollar value among tonight's hitters.
Verdugo's producing at a solid clip in 2019, with a .347 wOBA and .192 ISO, and while his wOBA drops slightly (to .337) against righties, his ISO climbs to .202 in the split on a 44.9% hard-hit rate.
Washington Nationals righty Anibal Sanchez is having one of his worst major league seasons, and his 5.13 SIERA is his highest since 2007, when he pitched only six games. He's giving up a .342 wOBA to left-handed bats in 2019, and this matchup gives Verdugo a nice boost.
Mike Tauchman, OF, New York Yankees ($3,000)
The New York Yankees' 5.69-run implied total is the highest on Friday's main slate as they take on right-hander Andrew Cashner and the Boston Red Sox.
Cashner may be rocking new threads, but the way he pitches is a lot more like what we've become accustomed to seeing from Baltimore Orioles pitchers than from the Red Sox. The 32-year-old is on pace for his third consecutive season with a SIERA worse than 5.00 (5.03, 5.33 and 5.52 in the last three years), and he's giving up a career-high 36.4% hard-hit rate.
Mike Tauchman has had a late start to his major league career, at 28 years old and in the midst of his first season with at least 40 plate appearances. He's producing very well though -- after raking for a .420 wOBA and .248 ISO (over 471 plate appearances) at the Triple-A level in 2018, he's flexing a .360 wOBA and .218 ISO in the bigs in 2019.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.