MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 7/24/19
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 10.0 Runs (-118): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Scoring runs is what the Dodgers do best, but that hasn't been the case recently when they face off against the Angls. Over the past 20 games between these two teams, the under has hit 12 times and the over 7 times (one push), according to Killer Sports. The Dodgers might be one of the better teams in the league over the past few seasons, and the Angels might be a middle of the road team, but they play this rivalry series as close as you can imagine.
This game is at Dodgers Stadium, which is the best pitcher's park on the slate, another factor that should help limit the run-scoring tonight. Ross Stripling is on the mound for the Dodgers, while Jaime Barria is starting for the Angels. Both pitchers are far from aces, but they've shown themselves to be competent pitchers -- notably Stripling, who is carrying a 3.83 xFIP this season.
Each team has plenty of star power, from Trout and Shohei Ohtani to Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy, but it doesn't appear that the offenses will be firing on all cylinders tonight. Our models have the under 10 runs coming in at a 65.41% likelihood for a 29.20% return.
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays
Indians Moneyline (-132): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Bieber has been amazing this season and comes in with nine wins in his 21 starts, along with a WHIP sitting at just 1.05 and the highest strikeout rate (31.1%) of any pitcher in action tonight. Bieber is coming off a bit of a rough start against the Kansas City Royals, where he allowed five earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched. Regardless of one bad start, he's still one of the better pitchers this season, and he should be able to show that tonight against the Blue Jays, who are one of the weaker teams versus right-handed pitchers.
The Blue Jays are holding an 85 wRC+ (27th in the league), 24.4% strikeout rate (8th worst), and a .180 ISO (18th) versus righties this year. They have a bit of power but are largely a weaker lineup and should be out-skilled by Bieber.
Speaking of Bieber, the Indians have won each of his last four starts and seven of his last 10. When Bieber starts, the Indians are likely to come away with the win, thus making it a relatively safe bet. Tonight, we see the -132 odds on Indians money, which is a decent amount of juice but should be looked as a vote of confidence with Bieber pitching.
With that being said, our models show the Indians moneyline hitting at 62.87% likelihood for a 10.50% return.
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