5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 7/23/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Matt Adams, 1B, Washington Nationals ($2,600)
Matt Adams has seen a $100 drop in his price compared to yesterday, even though that game was rained out and nothing has changed.
He's still up against Colorado Rockies righty Peter Lambert. Lambert has still only managed a 4.94 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in the majors (to go with his 5.02 xFIP in 11 Triple-A starts this year). And Adams still offers huge power.
He's sporting a 31.8% strikeout rate on the year and has only managed a .319 wOBA, but that inconsistency also comes with a huge .279 wOBA on a 44.4% fly-ball rate and 41.7% hard-hit rate. Adams is on pace for his third consecutive season with an ISO of at least .250 against right-handed hurlers, giving him more than enough upside to make up for his low floor.
Jake Bauers, OF, Cleveland Indians ($2,900)
Sanchez' 5.59 SIERA ranks dead-last among qualifying pitchers in 2019, and he hasn't posted a mark better than 5.10 since 2016. Accordingly, the Cleveland Indians have a strong 5.26-run implied total tonight.
Jake Bauers hasn't had an especially productive start to his MLB career, with a .305 wOBA and .169 ISO since debuting in 2018. He's hit right-handed pitching quite well though, with a 38.9% hard-hit and 36.9% fly-ball rate, which has translated to a not-terrible .316 wOBA and .171 ISO.
He's only sporting a .282 BABIP in that split as well, which is fairly low relative to the kind of contact he's making. With tonight's terrific matchup, we can expect a nice bump in production out of Bauers.
Eric Thames, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers ($2,800)
This is the usual Eric Thames spot.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Thames against a righty is a recipe for big upside, though he's always going to come with a low floor thanks to his high strikeout rate and inability to hit southpaws.
Thames has clobber right-handed pitchers for a .360 wOBA and .266 ISO since returning to the majors in 2017, and in 2019 he's flexing a .365 wOBA and .263 ISO on a 49.6% hard-hit and 44.2% fly-ball rate in the split.
Curtis Granderson, OF, Miami Marlins ($2,000)
The Miami Marlins value didn't work out last night, as they were shut down by Ivan Nova. They get another good pitching matchup tonight though, taking on right-hander Dylan Covey and the Chicago White Sox, so we can afford to go back to the well.
Covey has an egregious 6.20 SIERA over 12 games this season, and it's no surprise to see him struggling when we consider his career 5.22 SIERA.
Curtis Granderson is really struggling from the dish with a .267 wOBA and 27.4% strikeout rate this season, but that's why we can get him priced at the minimum salary. He's still making some terrific contact against right-handed hurlers, turning in a 44.2% hard-hit rate, 10.1% soft-hit rate and 43.0% fly-ball rate. At minimum-salary against Covey, that kind of contact gives Granderson a good chance of returning huge value with a single swing of his bat tonight.
Neil Walker, 1B, Miami Marlins ($2,500)
The switch-hitting Neil Walker is a bit more expensive than Granderson, but he's also in a position to return solid value.
Covey has been especially bad against left-handed bats this season, with an astounding 6.95 xFIP and .407 wOBA allowed. That brings him to a .361 wOBA and 5.07 xFIP in the split for his career.
Walker may be a switch-hitter, but he has been far more productive against righties, with a .344 wOBA and .178 ISO compared to a .296 wOBA and .098 ISO against southpaws. He's on pace for a career-high 42.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season, and this is his second year in a row up above 40% hard-hits in the split. Like Granderson, that power gives him the potential to return some massive value against Covey.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.