4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/22/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Mike Clevinger OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Mike Clevinger is coming off of a 12-strikeout outing last week, but will he reach that level again tonight?
Seeing 12 strikeouts from a pitcher is awesome since he truly appears untouchable on the mound. That performance came against the Detroit Tigers, who have a 26.3% strikeout rate this season, and now Clevinger finds himself against the Toronto Blue Jays, who have a 24.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. Things are lining up for Clevinger and his 41.4% strikeout rate this season to hit the over on this 7.5 strikeout prop.
Yes, that strikeout rate is slightly inflated since he only has seven starts this year, but he has 58 strikeouts in 35.1 innings pitched and doesn't seem to be slowing down. There is very little juice on the over tonight, and this should be viewed as a strong prop tonight.
Gerrit Cole UNDER 9.5 Strikeouts (-138)
While Gerrit Cole is the most expensive pitcher from a DFS perspective tonight, his strikeout prop might not be the right bet.
Cole is facing off against the Oakland Athletics tonight, who are surging right now and come in with a 21% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, the seventh-lowest in the league. Oakland simply doesn't chase the ball too much, which prevents opposing pitchers from racking up the strikeouts. Cole is carrying a very impressive 37.5% strikeout rate this season, but tonight doesn't appear to be his night for strikeouts.
Our projections have him going for 7.30 strikeouts tonight, a full two strikeouts lower than what his prop is set at. There is a bit of juice on the under for this prop, but between the projections and the Athletics being tough to strike out, it looks like the right bet tonight.
Eduardo Escobar To Hit a Home Run (+330)
The visiting Baltimore Orioles will have Aaron Brooks on the mound tonight, who comes in with a horrible 4.96 xFIP this season versus left-handed hitters while allowing 2.28 homers per nine innings and a 23.3% home-run-to-fly-ball rate. Those are some rough numbers to look at if you are an Orioles fan, and they likely won't get any better tonight considering there are some dangerous hitters in the Arizona lineup.
One hitter is Eduardo Escobar, who we have projected as the number one player for hitting a home run tonight. Yes, Escobar and his .224 ISO, 36.2% hard-hit rate, and 46.2% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers have him clocking in as the most likely hitter to hit one over the fence tonight. Escobar comes in with three home runs in his last five games and has very favorable odds on his prop tonight, which looks ripe for the taking.
Anthony Rendon To Hit a Home Run (+330)
There are a few of weather concerns in D.C. tonight, but they are set to have 11 mph winds blowing out, which could be a massive boost for hitters. Even without the winds, Rendon is a candidate to go deep really any night, and he should be able to show that versus a very young pitcher in Peter Lambert for the Colorado Rockies.
Rendon comes in with a .277 ISO, 48.3% hard-hit rate, and a simply unbelievable 49.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Half of the time he makes contact, the ball is going in the air. That is amazing, and combined with the winds tonight, we could be looking at an easy home run.
The +330 odds on this prop are great, and if the weather can cooperate just a bit tonight, we have what could be the bet of the night.