5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 7/22/1
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Jarrod Dyson, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks ($3,000)
Once again, the speedy Jarrod Dyson is priced way below his ceiling while batting leadoff in a plus matchup.
The Baltimore Orioles are one of the worst pitching teams in the majors, and that standing is not helped by righty Aaron Brooks. Getting the start on Monday, Brooks has only dealt a 4.70 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) across 17 games in 2019. He owns a 4.96 xFIP against left-handed bats, giving up a 7.7% walk rate and .338 wOBA in the split. The O's also allow above-average marks in both stolen bases per game and steal rate.
Still one of the premier base stealers in the majors, Dyson's 21 stolen bases are tied for the fourth-most this season. He's done that while making only 284 plate appearances, while the next-fewest plate appearances for anyone with at least 21 steals this year is 353.
That stolen base upside comes in part because he's doing a better job getting on base than we're used to seeing. His .307 wOBA isn't great, but his 10.6% walk rate is the third-best of his 10 years in the majors. He shouldn't have too much trouble getting on base against Brooks, and that's where his fantasy upside can really shine.
Josh Reddick, OF, Houston Astros ($2,700)
Josh Reddick has been struggling from the dish this month, and his batting average sits below the Mendoza line in July. Largely, though, this has been a promising year for Reddick on the offensive end. His 33.6% hard-hit rate is on pace to be his highest since 2009, his 16.1% soft-hit rate is his lowest since 2013, and he's still keeping up a 38.9% hard-hit and 23.8% line-drive rate.
He also gets the platoon advantage in a plus matchup tonight, taking on Oakland Athletics righty Homer Bailey.
Bailey has a 4.79 SIERA in 2019, and he hasn't managed a mark any better than that since 2016, when he pitched only six games. He's giving up some really hitter-friendly contact to left-handed hitters, too, with a 43.2% hard-hit and 13.7% soft-hit rate.
Matt Adams, 1B, Washington Nationals ($2,700)
Keep an eye on the weather for this one because there's some rain in the forecast, but if it plays then the Washington Nationals offense is going to be one to target.
Colorado Rockies righty Peter Lambert has a weak 4.94 SIERA across his first seven major league starts, and that's no surprise after he posted an awful 5.02 xFIP in his 11 Triple-A starts this year and a 4.71 xFIP in 11 such starts in 2018.
Matt Adams represents the classic case of a low floor keeping a power hitter with big upside under-priced in DFS. He's striking out 31.8% of the time and has only managed a .319 wOBA in 2019, but he's also flexing a huge .279 ISO on 41.7% hard hits and 44.4% fly balls. This is his third straight season with an ISO north of .250 against right-handed pitchers, and he has a ton of boom-or-bust upside against Lambert.
Starlin Castro, 2B, Miami Marlins ($2,100)
The Miami Marlins offense isn't usually one we're going to talk about in daily fantasy (unless we're looking at the opposing pitcher), but their bats are consistently cheap and can provide some interesting value when they get a good matchup.
Ivan Nova, a righty a brutal 5.11 SIERA in 110 2/3 innings this season, is exactly that kind of good matchup. He's giving up a 36.0% hard-hit rate on the year, and his strikeouts are down to an awful 14.8%.
Starlin Castro has been really quiet from the dish in 2019, but he also looks to be on the wrong side of variance. His terrific 40.4% hard-hit rate is on pace to be a career-high (crushing his career average of 29.5%), and his 16.1% soft-hit rate is well below his career average of 18.5%. Despite that, he's only managed a .280 BABIP, compared to .330 last season and .319 over his career.
Hitting the ball well should translate to production in a great matchup against Nova, making Castro a nice bargain while he's priced only $100 above the minimum salary.
Jordan Luplow, OF, Cleveland Indians ($2,800)
The Cleveland Indians are one of a handful of teams with an implied total north of five runs tonight as they take on the Toronto Blue Jays and southpaw Ryan Borucki.
In his first major league season in 2018, Borucki's 3.87 ERA looked promising. That was backed up by an awful 4.80 SIERA across his 17 games, though, suggesting he wasn't pitching any better than he was when he generated a 4.17 xFIP in his 13 Triple-A starts. He missed the start of the 2019 season as he worked his way back from elbow inflammation, and there's little reason to believe he'll return in any better form than we saw last year.
Jordan Luplow has mashed southpaws across 102 plate appearances this season, turning a 42.4% hard-hit and 42.4% fly-ball rate into a massive .451 wOBA and .380 ISO. That's unsustainable production over a fairly small sample, but it still puts him at a .389 wOBA and .321 ISO over 179 career major league plate appearances in the split, which is backed up by that terrific contact.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.